基于MaxEnt模型预测欧洲榆小蠹的全球潜在地理分布

Prediction of the potential global geographical distribution of smaller European elm bark beetle Scolytus multistriatus by using the MaxEnt model

为探究欧洲榆小蠹Scolytus multistriatus在全球的潜在地理分布,根据其全球分布数据和筛选出的环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型预测其在当前气候及未来气候条件下的适生区。结果显示,所建MaxEnt模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)大于0.9,表明模型预测结果可靠;利用刀切法对筛选出的环境变量进行分析后发现,12月平均最低温度对欧洲榆小蠹在全球的分布影响最大,同时也提供了最多的特有信息。在当前气候条件下,欧洲榆小蠹在全球的潜在分布范围主要集中在15°N~70°N和20°S~60°S之间,包括北美洲中部及南部、南美洲南部及东南沿海、欧洲、非洲中部、亚洲东部和大洋洲,适生区总面积约4.62×10^(7)km^(2)。欧洲榆小蠹在我国的适生区广泛分布于20余个省(自治区、直辖市),适生区总面积约为3.27×10^(6)km^(2)。在未来气候条件下,欧洲榆小蠹的适生区面积将会扩大,并在SSP585(2081—2100年)情境下达到最大,为5.93×10^(7)km^(2)。鉴于欧洲榆小蠹在我国具有较广的适生区,建议加强对其的检验检疫力度,防止其侵入我国。

In this study,based on global distribution data of smaller European elm bark beetle Scolytus multistriatus and selected environmental variables,the MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable areas of S.multistriatus under near-current and future climate conditions.The results showed that the area under the curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic of the MaxEnt model was greater than 0.9,affirming the model’s high reliability.Jackknife analyses of the environmental variables revealed that the average minimum temperature in December was the most influential climatic variable shaping the global distribution of S.multistriatus,providing specific information on the distribution of S.multistriatus.Under current climate conditions,the potential global distribution of S.multistriatus was mainly concentrated between 15°N-70°N and 20°S-60°S,including central and southern North America,southern and southeastern coasts of South America,Europe,central Africa,eastern Asia,and Oceania,resulting in a total suitable area of 4.62×10^(7)km^(2).In China,the suitable areas of S.multistriatus were widely distributed across more than 20 provinces,autonomous regions,and municipalities,with a total suitable area of 3.27×10^(6)km^(2).Under future climate conditions,the suitable area for S.multistriatus will expand,reaching a maximum area of 5.93×10^(7)km^(2)under the SSP585 scenario(2081—2100).Given the wide range of suitable areas in China,it is recommended to strengthen inspection and quarantine measures to prevent the invasion of S.multistriatus in China.