全球气候变化下大狼杷草在中国的潜在分布格局及变化趋势

Potential distribution pattern and trends of Devil’s beggarticks Bidens frondosa L.in China under global climate change

为探索气候变化对大狼杷草Bidens frondosa L.在中国适生区分布格局的影响,搜集获得大狼杷草264个分布点位及23个环境变量数据,运用GIS技术和优化后的MaxEnt模型预测当前和未来气候模式下大狼杷草的潜在分布格局及变化。运用受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线分析法进行验证,并利用刀切法分析影响大狼杷草分布的主要环境变量。刀切法分析结果表明,至人类活动最短距离、最湿月降水量和温度季节性变化对大狼杷草分布影响较大,贡献率依次为41.2%、33.5%和9.9%。各情景ROC曲线下面积(area under the receiver operating characteristic curve,AUC)值均大于0.9,模型可信度较高。当前气候下大狼杷草在中国的潜在适生区总面积为249.23×10^(4)km^(2),主要分布于北京、辽宁、河北、天津、安徽、山东、湖南、浙江、四川、江西、吉林、河南、江苏、湖北、黑龙江、山西、陕西、宁夏、重庆、贵州、广西、广东、福建和台湾等省(自治区、直辖市、地区)。全球气候变化背景下大狼杷草适生区面积波动性增加,扩张区主要分布于黑龙江省中部和南部、吉林省东部、内蒙古自治区东北部、河北省北部、山西省北部、陕西省南部、贵州省西南部、广西壮族自治区南部和广东省南部等地,适生丧失区主要分布于辽宁省和内蒙古自治区交界、陕西省南部、中国台湾省东部等地。

To investigate the impact of global climate change on the distribution pattern of Devil’s beggarticks Bidens frondosa L.in China,the data of 264 distribution sites of B.frondosa and 23 environmental variables were collected.The potential distribution of B.frondosa were predicted with the optimized MaxEnt model and GIS technology in combination with current and future climate change.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis method was used for verification,and the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of B.frondosa were analyzed by the knife-cutting method.The Jackknife analysis revealed that three factors,including shortest distance to human activity,precipitation of the wettest month and variation in seasonal temperatures,significantly influences on the distribution and spreading of B.frondosa,and their contribution rate was 41.2%,33.5%and 33.4%,respectively.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)value exceeded 0.9 under each scenario,indicating that the MaxEnt model had high credibility in simulating the potentially suitable distribution for B.frondosa.Under the current climate,the total potential distribution area of B.frondosa in China was 249.23×10^(4)km^(2).B.frondosa was mainly distributed in Beijing,Liaoning,Hebei,Tianjin,Anhui,Shandong,Hunan,Zhejiang,Sichuan,Jiangxi,Jilin,Henan,Jiangsu,Hubei,Heilongjiang,Shanxi,Shaanxi,Ningxia,Chongqing,Guizhou,Guangxi,Guangdong,Fujian,Taiwan region,etc.With climate change,the total area of suitable habitat of B.frondosa fluctuates and increases.The expansion areas are mainly located in the central and southern parts of Heilongjiang,eastern Jilin,northeastern Inner Mongolia,northern Hebei,northern Shanxi,southern Shaanxi,southwestern Guizhou,southern Guangxi,and southern Guangdong,etc.,and the loss areas was distributed in the border of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia,southern Shaanxi and eastern Taiwan region.