基于关联规则和证据理论的输电线路水土流失地质灾害风险评估

Geological Hazard Risk Assessment of Soil and Water Loss for Transmission Lines Based on Association Rules and Evidence Theory

为了及时发现输电线路潜在的地质灾害隐患,提出了架空输电线路水土流失地质灾害风险评估方法。首先,结合架空输电线路环境特征、气象数据和巡线相关数据,利用关联规则量化环境特征与水土流失灾害的关联关系,基于证据理论以坡度、坡向、坡位、海拔等特征因子为证据体计算水土流失灾害基本信度;然后,结合雨温联合致灾风险概率分布函数,构建了架空线路水土流失灾害风险概率计算模型。以某500 kV线路为例,分析了该评估模型的详细计算流程,划分了输电线路水土流失灾害风险等级,提出了差异化的地质灾害风险防范措施。该方法能有效评估架空输电线路的水土流失灾害风险,为线路的智能化运维管理提供理论支持。

In order to promptly identify potential geological hazards of transmission lines,a method to assess the risk of soil erosion disasters on overhead transmission lines is proposed.Combined with the environmental characteristics,meteorological data and patrol related data of overhead transmission lines,the correlation between environmental characteristics and soil erosion disasters is quantified by association rules.Based on evidence theory,the basic reliability of soil erosion disasters is calculated using characteristic factors such as slope,aspect,position and altitude as evidence bodies.A probability calculation model for soil erosion disaster risk of overhead lines is constructed using the joint probability distribution function of rain and temperature disaster risk.Taking a 500 kV transmission line for example,the detailed calculation process of the evaluation model is analyzed,the risk levels of soil erosion disasters for the transmission line are divided,and the differentiated geological disaster risk prevention measures are proposed.This proposed method can effectively evaluate the risk of soil erosion disasters for overhead transmission lines,and provide theoretical support for the intelligent operation and maintenance management of the lines.