双向投资能否改善资源错配?——基于中国省级面板数据的研究

Can bidirectional investment improve resource misallocation:A study based on provincial panel data in China

研究双向投资对资源错配的影响对于优化中国资源配置和促进经济高质量发展具有重要意义。基于中国31省(市、自治区)2003—2021年的面板数据,在测度各省(市、自治区)历年资本和劳动力错配指数的基础上构建面板回归模型、中介效应模型及SDM模型,分析外商投资、对外投资与双向投资协同发展分别对资本错配和劳动力错配的影响。结果表明:(1)外商投资会加剧资本错配,但能改善劳动力错配,对外投资能同时改善资本和劳动力错配,双向投资协同发展对资源错配的改善作用并不明显,在考虑内生性问题和替换指标及样本后结果仍然稳健;(2)双向投资能通过技术进步效应、产业升级效应和劳动力成本上升效应对资本与劳动力错配产生影响;(3)双向投资对东、中、西部地区以及资源配置不足和配置过度地区资本与劳动力错配的影响存在差异;(4)双向投资对劳动力错配存在空间溢出效应,且间接效应高于直接效应。基于此,提出坚持吸引外资并鼓励企业“走出去”、制定差异化的双向投资发展策略、发挥双向投资对资源配置影响的空间溢出效应的政策启示。

Studying the impact of bidirectional investment on resource mismatch is of great significance for optimizing China's resource allocation and promoting high-quality economic development.Based on the panel data of 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2003 to 2021,a panel regression model,a mediating effects model and an SDM model are constructed to analyse the impact of foreign investment,outward investment and bidirectional investment synergy on capital misallocation and labour misallocation respectively,based on measuring the capital and labour misallocation indices for each province each year.The results show that:(1)Foreign investment exacerbates capital misallocation but improves labour misallocation,that outward investment improves both capital and labour misallocation,bidirectional investment synergy does not improve resource mismatch significantly,and that the results remain robust considering endogeneity issues and replacement indicators and samples.(2)Bidirectional investment can affect capital and labour misallocation through the effects of technological progress,industrial upgrading and rising labour costs.(3)There are differences in the impact of bidirectional investment on capital and labour misallocation between the eastern,central and western regions and between under-resourced and over-resourced regions.(4)Bidirectional investment has a spatial spillover effect on labour misallocation,and the indirect effect is more significant than the direct effect.Based on the results,policy inspirations are put forward to persistently attract foreign investment and encourage enterprises to"go global",formulate differentiated development strategies for bidirectional investment,and bring into play the spatial spillover effects of bidirectional investment on resource allocation.