中国农业节水政策效果评估

Effect evaluation of agricultural water conservation policies in China

【目的】实施积极的农业节水政策是提高水资源利用效率、缓解水资源供需矛盾、促进农业可持续发展的重要手段。探讨政策的效应,对科学制定和完善中国农业节水政策具有重要理论和现实意义。【方法】本文基于2011—2021年中国政府颁布的农业节水政策,采用政策文本量化分析的方法,从政策的力度、目标、措施、监督和反馈5个维度测算了政策效力,并建立了多元回归模型评估了不同政策工具的实施效果。【结果】研究表明:(1)政策总效力呈周期性变动态势,但各年政策平均效力整体呈较低水平;(2)在政策效力的5个维度中,政策的措施较多,但力度偏低,目标不够具体,监督和反馈不充分;(3)在政策工具中,命令控制型、能力建设型政策工具的总效力和平均效力均强于经济激励型和劝导型政策工具;(4)政策文本中各政策工具对灌溉水利用系数的影响均存在滞后效应,命令控制型和经济激励型政策工具的使用对灌溉水利用系数的提高具有显著正向影响,劝导型和能力建设型政策工具的作用仍需进一步提升。【结论】中国农业节水政策制定时应强化顶层设计、加强部门之间的协调配合;应进一步提高内容效度,不断夯实政策维度的具体内容;应协同运用4类政策工具,推动政策落地见效。

[Objective]The purpose of implementing active agricultural water conservation policies is to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources,alleviate the conflict between water resource supply and demand,and promote the sustainable development of agriculture.Correspondingly,active agricultural water conservation policies are an important way to achieve these goals.Exploring the effects of the policies is of great theoretical and practical significance for the scientific formulation and improvement of China’s agricultural water conservation policy.[Methods]Based on the agricultural water conservation policies promulgated by the Chinese government from 2011 to 2021,this study used the method of quantitative analysis of policy texts to measure the policy effectiveness in five dimensions:policy strength,objectives,measures,supervision,and feedback,and established a multiple regression model to assess the implementation effects of different policy tools.[Results]The results show that:(1)The overall effectiveness of the policies showed a fluctuating trend,but the average effectiveness of the policies in each year was generally low;(2)Among the five dimensions of policy effectiveness,there are many measures,but the intensity is low,the objectives are not specific enough,and the supervision and feedback are insufficient;(3)Among the policy tools,command-and-control and capacity-building policy tools had higher total and average effectiveness than economic-incentive and persuasive policy tools;(4)Each policy tool in the policy text had a lagged effect on the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water,and the use of command-and-control and economic-incentive policy tools had a significant positive effect on the improvement of the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water,while the role of persuasive and capacitybuilding policy tools needs to be further improved.[Conclusion]Therefore,first,China’s agricultural water conservation policies should be formulated in a way that strengthens top-level design and inter-sectoral coordination.Second,content effectiveness should be further improved and the specific content of the policy dimensions should be continuously enriched.Third,the four types of policy tools should be used in a synergistic manner to promote policies that produce good results.