基于PLUS模型的徐州市土地利用布局弹性空间模拟

Simulation of flexible space of land use layout in Xuzhou City based on the PLUS model

【目的】规划弹性空间作为国土空间管制的创新性方式,对提高空间规划科学性与有效性、减轻不确定因素的扰动冲击有重要意义,本文旨在探究不确定条件下的土地利用布局弹性空间划定。【方法】本文以徐州市为例,先运用区间优化模型求取各类用地数量弹性区间,然后以区间上、下限对应的面积作为数量需求导入PLUS模型分别模拟各类用地的空间布局,将各地类两次模拟布局差异部分划为弹性空间。【结果】结果表明:(1)各用地数量弹性区间大小存在差异,其中对未来不确定性承纳贡献较大的土地类型为农村居民点、耕地、水域、城镇工矿用地,而较小的是草地、未利用地。(2)各类用地弹性空间分布有一定规律性,其中耕地弹性空间集中于城镇、农村周边土地利用变化热点区,园地、林地弹性空间集中于河流沿岸、低山丘陵等适宜生长区,城镇工矿、农村居民点用地弹性空间主要分布在城乡原用地外缘。(3)基于各土地利用类型弹性空间,按规划分区归并土地类型,同时按适宜度标准处理弹性空间冲突部分,得到不同空间规划分区的弹性空间,其中农业生产区、生态保护区、城镇建设区与乡村发展区的弹性空间面积占总面积比例分别为1.74%、0.20%、1.09%与3.31%。【结论】土地利用空间可能冲突的概率分布是弹性空间划定前提,应从不确定性视角划定土地利用布局的弹性空间,本文提出的基于区间优化与PLUS模型的弹性空间划定方法具有可行性,可为规划决策提供支持。

[Objective]As an innovative way of regulating territorial space,the planning of flexible space is of great significance for improving the scientific quality and effectiveness of spatial planning,and reducing the disturbance and impact of uncertain factors.This study aimed to explore the delineation of land use layout flexible space under uncertain conditions.[Methods]The study took Xuzhou City,a typical resource-based city,as an example.First,an interval optimization model was used to obtain the flexible quantity interval of various land use types.Then,the upper and lower limits of the interval served as the quantity demand to import the PLUS model to simulate the spatial layout of various land use types,and the difference between the two simulated layouts was designated as flexible space.[Results]The results show that:(1)There are differences in the size of the flexible quantity interval of each land use type,among which land use types that contribute more to addressing future uncertainty are rural residential land,farmland,water,urban industrial and mining land,while the smaller ones are grassland and bare land.(2)The flexible space distribution of various land use types shows a certain pattern,and the flexible space of farmland is concentrated in the hotspots of land use change around urban and rural areas,the flexible space of garden plot and woodland is distributed in suitable growth areas such as river banks and low hills,and the flexible space of urban industrial and mining land and rural residential land is mainly distributed in the outer edge areas of their original scope.(3)Based on the flexible space of each land use type,the land types were merged according to the zoning function of the planning,and the conflicting parts of the flexible space were processed according to the suitability to obtain the flexible space of different spatial planning zones.Among them,the flexible space areas of agricultural production zones,ecological protection zones,urban construction zones,and rural development zones account for 1.74%,0.20%,1.09%,and 3.31%of the total area,respectively.[Conclusion]The probability distribution of possible conflicts in land use space is the prerequisite for the delineation of flexible space.It is necessary to delineate flexible space of land use layout from an uncertain perspective.Based on interval optimization and PLUS model,the delineation method of flexible space proposed in this study seems feasible,which can provide support for planning decisions.