传统与新型基础设施投资如何推动经济增长

How Does Traditional and New Infrastructure Investment Promote Economic Growth?

文章基于1997-2020年中国31个省、自治区、直辖市的面板数据,实证检验了政府主导的基础设施投资的经济效应,探究传统和新型基础设施投资对经济增长的影响。研究发现:第一,传统基础设施投资和新型基础设施投资相互依存、互为约束、共促增长。二者均能够显著提升全员劳动生产率,但剥离了传统基础设施投资的影响后发现,基本新型基础设施投资对经济增长的促进效应远大于传统基础设施投资。第二,地区的区位优势、人力资本、社会资本、贸易比较优势和地理位置对基础设施投资的经济效应具有异质性影响,低房地产价值、低人力资本水平、低转移支付水平、低贸易程度地区和东中部地区从基础设施投资中获益更多。第三,从需求结构、供给结构和效率结构三重升级的角度进行机制分析发现,传统基础设施投资能够推动供给结构升级,但会阻碍需求结构升级,同时对效率结构升级不具有显著影响;而新型基础设施投资能够推动需求结构、供给结构和效率结构三重升级。第四,传统基础设施投资的经济促进作用更加持久稳定,但作用程度较为平缓,新型基础设施投资的经济促进作用则更加快速显著,但作用期较为短暂且不稳定。文章就传统和新型基础设施投资对经济增长影响的比较分析,丰富了基础设施投资的相关研究,为助力中国经济调结构、转方式、促增长提供了一定的理论支持和经验证据。

Based on panel data from 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 1997 to 2020,this paper empirically tested the economic effects of government-led infrastructure investment and explored the impact of traditional and new infrastructure investment on economic growth.This paper found that:Firstly,the traditional and the new infrastructure investment are interdependent,constrained,and jointly promote growth.Both of them significantly improved overall labor productivity.But after stripping away the impact of traditional infrastructure investment,it was found that the promotion effect of basic new infrastructure investment on economic growth is much greater than that of traditional infrastructure investment.Secondly,regional location advantages,human capital,social capital,trade comparative advantages and geographical location had heterogeneous effects on the economic effects of infrastructure investment.Regions with low real estate value,low human capital level,low transfer payment level,low trade degree and the eastern and central regions benefited more from infrastructure investment.Thirdly,from the perspective of the triple upgrading of demand structure,supply structure,and efficiency structure,it was found that traditional infrastructure investment can promote the upgrading of supply structure,but it hindered the upgrading of demand structure,while having no significant impact on the upgrading of efficiency structure.While new infrastructure investment promoted the triple upgrading of demand structure,supply structure and efficiency structure.Fourthly,the economic promotion effect of traditional infrastructure investment was more lasting and stable,but the degree of effect was relatively flat.The economic promotion effect of new infrastructure investment was more rapid and significant,but the duration of effect was relatively short and unstable.This paper provided a comparative analysis of the impact of traditional and new infrastructure investment on economic growth,enriches relevant research on infrastructure investment and provides theoretical support and empirical evidence for assisting China’s economic restructuring,mode transformation and growth promotion.