数字经济的发展提高了就业稳定性吗?

Does the Development of the Digital Economy Improve Employment Stability?

随着数字化进程的不断推进,数字经济已经逐渐成为引领经济社会发展的新动力。论文关注数字经济的发展是否有利于提高居民就业稳定性,影响渠道如何的问题。基于搜寻-匹配理论框架,得出数字经济对居民就业稳定性的影响包括两个渠道:一方面,数字经济降低了就业市场的信息不对称,提高了就业岗位的技能适配程度,进而提升了就业稳定性;另一方面,数字技术的介入可能会替代一部分劳动力,导致员工主动或被动离职率上升,就业稳定性下降。基于CFPS数据的实证检验,得出在这两种因素的综合作用下,数字经济的发展对居民的稳定就业表现出积极影响,在更换衡量指标、排除其他事件影响、使用工具变量之后,这一结论均能够保持稳健。机制分析的结果表明,就业匹配效率和劳动替代两个渠道均存在,只是后一机制的显著性和稳健性更弱。

With the continuous advancement of digitalization,the digital economy has gradually become a new driving force leading the development of the society and economy.Under the current economic situation,does the development of the digital economy contribute to the improvement of the em-ployment stability of residents?Based on the theoretical framework,this article analyzes the impact of the digital economy on the employment stability of residents,which includes two channels:On the one hand,the digital economy reduces information asymmetry in the job market,improves the skill matching degree of employment positions,and thus enhances employment stability;on the other hand,the intervention of digital technology may replace some labor force,leading to an increase in voluntary or involuntary turnover rate and a decrease in employment stability.The empirical results based on the CFPS data show that,under the combined effect of these two factors,the development of the digital economy has a positive impact on the stable em-ployment of residents,and this conclusion remains robust after changing measurement of the indicators,excluding the influence of other events,and u-sing instrumental variables.The result of the mechanism analysis shows that both employment matching efficiency and labor substitution channels exist,but the significance and robustness of the latter mechanism are weaker.That is,the channel of improving employment matching efficiency is more likely to play a dominant role and bring positive effects on the employment stability.