长江经济带农业农村现代化和乡村振兴耦合协调发展的时空演化及预测

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Prediction of Coupling Coordination Development of Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Rural Revitalization in Yangtze River Economic Belt

基于2015—2021年长江经济带11个省(市)的面板数据,运用熵值法、耦合协调模型和灰色预测模型,分析了长江经济带农业农村现代化和乡村振兴的时空演变特征及其未来的发展趋势。结果表明:(1)长江经济带各省(市)农业农村现代化和乡村振兴的耦合度均值在[0.91,1.00]之间,处于高度耦合阶段;(2)长江经济带各省(市)农业现代化、农村现代化、乡村振兴耦合协调度均值在[0.3827,0.7555]之间,并且呈逐年增长的趋势;(3)除上海市外,长江经济带其他省(市)的协调发展状况均表现为农村现代化水平滞后;(4)长江经济带农业现代化、农村现代化、乡村振兴耦合协调水平的重心整体向西南方向偏移。由此可知,未来发展应在主要提升农村现代化水平的同时整体发展重心向西南部转移。

Based on the panel data of 11 provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2015 to 2021,this paper used the entropy method,coupling coordination model,and gray prediction model to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and future development trends of agricultural and rural modernization and rural revitalization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The results show that:(1)The average coupling degree of agricultural and rural modernization and rural revitalization in the provinces and cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is between[0.91,1.00],which is at a high coupling stage.(2)The average coupling coordination degree of agricultural and rural modernization and rural revitalization in the provinces and cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is between[0.3827,0.7555],and shows an increasing trend year by year.(3)Except for Shanghai,the coordinated development of other provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is lagging behind in the level of rural modernization.(4)The center of gravity of the coupling coordination level of agricultural and rural modernization and rural revitalization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has shifted to the southwest.It can be seen that that the future development should mainly improve the level of rural modernization,while the overall development focus should be shifted to the southwest.