东亚福利体制下公众对政府福利责任态度变迁的比较研究——基于1996—2016年ISSP数据的实证分析

Changes in Public Attitudes toward Government Welfare Responsibilities under the East AsianWelfare Regime:A Comparative Analysis Based on ISSP Data from 1996 to 2016

本文采用国际社会调查项目(ISSP)1996年、2006年、2016年政府责任主题调查数据,采用定量研究方法,以东亚福利体制下日本、韩国、中国台湾省公众对政府福利责任的态度为研究对象。研究发现:三个国家和地区公众在1996年、2006年、2016年期间对政府福利责任态度发生较大变化,1996年日本公众对政府社会性福利责任认同态度较高;2006年韩国公众对政府经济性福利责任认同态度得分最高,中国台湾省的社会性福利态度得分最高;2016年中国台湾省的社会性和经济性福利责任认同态度得分均最高。三次调查数据显示日本的经济性和社会性福利态度变化较大,其次为韩国,中国台湾省变化最小。研究进一步发现同一福利体制下公众福利态度的差异化特征受时间、国家和地区以及个人因素的影响。福利态度国别地区比较研究说明东亚福利体制内的同一性和差异性并存。本文丰富并发展了东亚福利体制理论,具有基于本土福利态度发展政策的意义。

International experience shows that welfare crisis events profoundly affect the welfare systems of various countries and challenge their social policies and welfare governance capabilities.The academic community has proposed different reform ideas for different welfare states,and comparative research on welfare regimes has emerged.Esping-Andersen divides western welfare states into conservative regime,liberal regime and social democratic regime based on the degree of decommodification in each country.Later,some studies proposed that Japan,South Korea,Hong Kong of China,Taiwan Province of China,China's Mainland,Singapore,etc.have common welfare characteristics and then form an East Asian welfare regime.Developmentalism and productivism,Confucian culture,and low welfare levels are the characteristics of the East Asian welfare regime.Welfare attitudes are the tendency of people to support or disapprove of government welfare responsibilities.Empirical research focuses on factors influencing attitudes toward welfare responsibilities.Some studies have discussed this topic from the perspective of welfare regime factors,national and regional factors,and personal factors.However,existing research has some shortcomings:East Asian welfare regime is usually analyzed uniformly,lacking country-to-country comparisons;the impact of micro individual factors is not explored;and there is a lack of research that analyzes welfare attitudes in different countries and regions under the East Asian welfare regime based on time trends.From the perspective of international comparison of welfare attitudes,this study analyzes the mechanism of national and regional factors,personal factors,and time factors on welfare attitudes,and examines the changing and evolutionary characteristics of welfare attitudes under the East Asian welfare regime.Using the 1996,2006 and 2016“Role of Government”survey data of the International Social Survey Program(ISSP),the public welfare attitudes in Japan,South Korea,and Taiwan Province of China under the East Asian welfare regime were used as the research objects.Three research questions are studied:(1)What are the characteristics of public welfare attitudes in different countries and regions under the East Asian welfare regime?(2)In different historical peri-ods,what are the developments and changes in public welfare attitudes in various countries and regions under the East Asian welfare regime?(3)What are the factors influencing the changes in public welfare attitudes under the East Asian welfare regime?This study adopts quantitative analysis methods and trend analysis perspectives.The specific statistical analysis techniques used include rotational factor analysis,analysis of variance,multiple linear regression analysis,etc.This study takes welfare attitude as the dependent variable,including the attitude toward economic welfare responsibilities and the attitude toward social welfare responsibilities.The influencing factors of welfare responsibility attitudes are used as independent variables,including time factors,national and regional factors,and personal factors.This paper explores the impact of three types of factors on the changing trends and characteristics of public welfare attitudes under the East Asian welfare regime.The study found that public welfare attitudes in East Asia have time-varying and differentiated characteristics.First,in the horizontal aspect,under the East Asian welfare regime,there are significant differences in welfare attitudes in different countries and regions at the same time,and attitudes towards social and economic welfare responsibilities are different.The results of data analysis in 2006 show that the economic welfare attitude is relatively high in South Korea,the social welfare attitude is relatively high in Taiwan Province,and Japan is relatively low in both.The results of data analysis in 2016 show that Taiwan Province has relatively high attitudes toward both economic and social welfare responsibilities.Second,in the vertical aspect,under the East Asian welfare regime,there are significant differences in the attitudes towards welfare responsibilities in the same country or region and at different times.The attitudes towards social and economic welfare responsibilities are different.In the decades reflected in the database,Japan's economic and social welfare attitudes have changed relatively greatly,followed by South Korea,and Taiwan Province has changed relatively little.Japan's economic welfare attitude score has experienced a trend of first declining and then rising,while the social welfare attitude score has almost continued to decline.South Korea’s economic and social welfare attitudes are almost all showing a downward trend;Taiwan Province has not changed much.Third,in terms of influencing factors,time factors,national and regional factors and personal factors have a significant impact on welfare responsibility attitudes.Sociodemographic factors,socioeconomic status factors and value concept factors all have an impact on economic welfare attitudes and social welfare attitudes to a certain extent.Time factors and national and regional factors also have a significant impact on welfare attitudes.Crossnational comparative research on welfare attitudes illustrates the coexistence of homogeneity and differences within the East Asian welfare regime.This study conducts a longitudinal and dynamic analysis of public welfare attitudes under the East Asian countries and regions,provides empirical research support for the theoretical re-innovation of the East Asian welfare regime,and provides academic mirrors for China’s social welfare system reform and innovation,which have theoretical and policy significance.