长江三角洲旅游经济时空异质性特征及演化趋势

Research on the Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity Characteristics and Evolution Trend of the Tourism Economy in Yangtze River Delta

区域旅游经济发展的差异或趋同一直是学界关注的热点。研究利用基尼系数、泰尔指数等反映区域经济发展状态的指标,结合ArcGIS、Origin等工具,探究2013—2021年长江三角洲旅游经济时空异质性特征,并采用R/S分析法分析其演变趋势。研究表明:(1)时间上,2013—2019年长江三角洲旅游经济总收入呈稳定上升趋势,2019年后波动明显;2013—2021年长江三角洲各地区旅游经济发展不平衡。(2)空间上,长江三角洲旅游经济呈现“南北高,东西低”的特征,2013—2021年各省份旅游经济差距显著且逐年增大,形成了“江苏>浙江>安徽>上海”较为稳定的空间结构。(3)在原有政策、生态环境等旅游发展要素条件既定情况下,长江三角洲旅游经济差异在2022—2030年的总体演化趋势将与2013—2021年变化趋势大体一致。

The differences or convergence in the development of regional tourism economy has always been a hot topic of academic attention.This study uses such indicators reflecting regional economy development state as Gi⁃ni coefficient,and Theil index,combined with ArcGIS,Origin and other tools,to explore the spatial and temporal heterogeneity characteristics of the Yangtze River Delta tourism economy from 2013 to 2021,and adopts R/S analy⁃sis method to analyze its evolution trend.The research shows that:(1)In terms of time,the total tourism economy in⁃come of the Yangtze River Delta showed an upward trend from 2013 to 2019,with significant fluctuations after 2019,and the development of tourism economy in various regions of the Yangtze River Delta from 2013 to 2021 was uneven.(2)in terms of space,the tourism economy of the Yangtze River Delta exhibits a spatial characteristic of“high in the north and south,low in the east and west”,and from 2013 to 2021,the gap in tourism economy among provinces was significant and increasing year by year,forming a relatively stable spatial structure of“Jiangsu>Zhe⁃jiang>Anhui>Shanghai”;and(3)under the established conditions of existing policies,ecological environment and other tourism development factors,the overall evolution trend of the tourism economy differences in the Yangtze Riv⁃er Delta from 2022 to 2030 will be generally consistent with the trend of changes in the period from 2013 to 2021.