印度“危机驱动型”情报改革模式研究

Research on India's"Crisis-Driven"Intelligence Reform Model

[研究目的]2020年中印边界冲突之后,印度开始进一步调整情报体系。鉴于印度在美国“印太战略”中的地位不断上升,关注其情报改革的历史与现实对中国而言至关重要。[研究方法]通过梳理印度情报演进历史,发现三次危机深刻推动了印度的情报改革,即20世纪60年代两场战争、1999年卡吉尔战争和2008年孟买恐怖袭击。基于三次危机中的情报失误,印度进行了一系列情报改革并形成了现有的印度情报格局。因此,印度情报体系改革可概括为“危机驱动型”模式。[研究结论]研究认为,这种情报改革模式是基于危机进行的修正,缺乏战略性和系统性。因此,遇到新情况时固有缺陷或将反复出现。当前国际格局深刻调整,面临新危机与新形势,印度未来情报改革将聚焦三方面:加强情报统筹、促进技术融合、重视情报监督。部分改革新动向主要指向中国,须加强关注。

[Research purpose]After the Sino-Indian border conflict in 2020,India began to further adjust its intelligence system.In view of the rising status of India in the US“Indo-Pacific strategy”,it is very important for China to pay attention to the history and reality of India's intelligence reform.[Research method]By combing the history of Indian intelligence,it is found that three crises have profoundly promoted its intelligence reform,namely the two wars in the 1960s,the Kargil War in 1999 and the Mumbai terrorist attack in 2008.Based on the intelligence failures in the three crises,India carried out a series of intelligence reforms and formed the current Indian intelligence structure.Therefore,the reform of India's intelligence system can be summarized as a“crisis-driven”model.[Research conclusion]The study believes that this intelligence reform model is based on a crisis-based revision and lacks strategy and systemicity.Therefore,inherent flaws may recur when new situations are encountered.The current international situation is undergoing profound adjustments,and is facing new crises and new situations,India's future intelligence reform will focus on three aspects:strengthening intelligence coordination,promoting technological integration,and emphasizing intelligence supervision.Some new reform trends are mainly directed at China,and more attention should be paid to it.