情报产品模糊性的塑造机理研究

Research on the Shaping Mechanism of"Ambiguous"in Intelligence Products

[研究目的]情报产品用语含糊现象并不鲜见,其与情报产品质量标准,如“准确、客观”等要求背道而驰,不加以规制将影响到情报的决策辅助功能。[研究方法]该文首先对模糊性及相关概念进行了界定与区分,阐明了该议题研究的重要意义。在此基础上,重点从三个方面剖析了情报产品模糊性的塑造机理。[研究结论]情报产品模糊性有其主客观原因。其中情报分析人员的角色模糊、情报工作的目标模糊、决策者的战略性模糊构成了情报产品模糊性的主要发生机理。缓解的思路在于,密切情报人员与决策者之间的交流,弥合两者之间因可能存在的“地位”差异而导致的服务妥协;强化情报生产过程的精细度和透明度等等。

[Research purpose]It is not uncommon for intelligence products using ambiguous terms,which run counter to the requirements of intelligence product quality standards,such as"accuracy and objectivity".Without regulation,it will affect the decision-making support function of intelligence.[Research method]Firstly,this study defines and distinguishes the fuzziness and related concepts,and clarifies the significance of this topic research.On this basis,it focuses on analyzing the shaping mechanism of the ambiguity of intelligence products from three aspects.[Research conclusion]There are subjective and objective reasons for the ambiguity of intelligence products.Among them,the ambiguity of the role of intelligence analysts,the ambiguity of the goals of intelligence work,and the strategic ambiguity of decision makers constitute the main mechanism of the ambiguity of intelligence products.The idea of mitigation depends on the close communication between intelligence personnel and decision makers,bridging the service compromise caused by the"status"difference between these two,and strengthening the precision and transparency of the intelligence production process,etc.