贸易关税和中国零售品价格

Trade Tariff and Retail Price in China

2018年7月以来,中美加征贸易关税对两国甚至全球贸易和消费者福利产生了巨大影响。本文基于“我查查”移动终端的消费品零售价格数据和Feenstra et al.(2020)多产品异质企业模型,系统探究了中美加征贸易关税对中国零售品价格的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,中国对美国的反制关税对国内消费品价格的影响非常有限,即进口关税大多由零售商调整价格加价而吸收,该现象与美国经验一致。相反,美国对中国产品课税则显著提高中国零售品价格,这是因为外贸市场规模缩减显著降低了国内市场生存企业数量,导致生产更加集中在高生产率厂商。国内市场竞争程度降低促使存活企业提高商品价格加价,进而造成零售品价格上涨。本文发现,中国反制关税对中国消费者福利的影响较小,而美国对中国的关税给中国消费者带来了显著损失。本文的结论丰富了有关贸易壁垒与零售品价格关系的实证研究,对于维护国内市场稳定、释放居民消费潜力、增强当地市场抵御外部冲击的韧性具有重要启示意义。

Since July 2018,the United States has imposed five major rounds of tariffs on Chinese imports,affecting approximately USD 550 billion of goods imported from China. In response,China also implemented retaliatory tariffs on about USD 180 billion of imports from the United States. This trade tension,in terms of the extent of tariff increases and the range of trade involved,has far exceeded the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s and greatly impacted trade and welfare in both countries and globally. However,existing literature primarily focuses on the impact on the United States,with relatively less research on China's experience. This paper studies the effects of import and export tariffs under trade tension on domestic retail prices in China,with focus on the impact of the U. S. import tariffs and China's retaliatory tariffs on Chinese retail prices.This paper uses novel retail price data collected through the“Wochacha”mobile app and conducts regression analysis on the retail prices of 4853 common consumer goods across more than 60 cities at five time periods before and after the trade war. The analysis adopts a structural estimation approach using the Feenstra et al.(2020)multi-product heterogeneous firm model. This paper finds that China's retaliatory tariffs on U. S. goods have a limited impact on domestic consumer goods prices,which are absorbed mainly by retailers by adjusting prices,a phenomenon consistent with the experience in the United States. In contrast, the U. S. tariff significantly increased retail prices in China due to a substantial reduction in the number of domestic enterprises resulting from shrinking foreign trade market size that leads to higher concentration among high-productivity manufacturers. This reduction in domestic market competition resulted in higher markup prices of surviving enterprises, thereby increasing retail prices.This paper's findings indicate that changes in external demand can affect the market share and structure of enterprises in the domestic market through firms' entry and exit decisions,which indirectly impact the domestic price and consumer welfare. Therefore,expanding external demand is crucial for maintaining domestic market stability and promoting consumer prosperity. Meanwhile, increasing domestic demand is also vital for high-quality economic development. Lastly,improving retail channels and enhancing retail service quality,especially those in remote areas,can maintain a balanced social development. For instance,actively promoting high-quality development in the retail industry and expanding retail channels(e. g., urban supply and marketing cooperative models) not only meet consumers' aspirations for a better life but also reduce regional disparities in consumption,enhancing local market resilience to external shocks.