美国对华人工智能发展的认知偏差、威胁放大与政策选择——基于折中主义分析方法

U.S.Perceptive Biases,Threat Amplification,and Policy Choices on China's Artificial Intelligence Development:Based on an Analytical EclecticismApproach

树立正确认知是处理中美关系的关键。在中美战略竞争阶段,美国误解中国人工智能的发展目标,放大中国人工智能发展的威胁,进而突破合理范围,形成对华人工智能的多层认知偏差,将影响美国对华科技政策的制定,不利于中美关系的健康发展。为清晰理解美国对华人工智能发展的认知偏差,妥善应对人工智能给中美两国带来的共同挑战,文章在分析折中主义的视角下,分别从现实主义和建构主义两个层面,结合人工智能的军用、民用和资源三个属性,搭建美国对华人工智能发展认知偏差空间模型,在各个认知偏差空间内,剖析权力、安全、规范等元素间的互动推动美国产生具体认知偏差的路径。文章从国家安全、商业竞争、资源争夺等维度分析美国遏制中国人工智能发展的相应举措,并解释政策背后的动因。文章认为,认知偏差将对美国和中美关系产生负面影响,美国应改变对华人工智能发展错误认知,与中国共同合作应对人工智能挑战。

In the stage of strategic competition between China and the United States,the United States misunderstands China's AI development goals,magnifies the threat of China's AI development,and then breaks through the reasonable range,forming a multilayered perceptive bias towards China's AI,which affects the formulation of U.S.scientific and technological policies towards China,and is not conducive to the healthy development of U.S.-China relations.In order to understand more clearly the perceptive bias of the US towards China's AI development,and to better face the common challenges brought by AI to China and the US,this paper builds a spatial model of the perceptive bias of the US towards China's AI development under the perspective of analytical eclecticism,from the realism and constructivism levels,and by combining the three attributes of Al,namely military,civil,and resources.Within each perceptive bias space,the interaction among power,security,norms and other elements is analyzed to drive the path of specific perceptive bias in the United States.Analyze the corresponding U.S.initiatives to curb China's AI development from the dimensions of national security,commercial competition,and resource competition,and explain the motivations behind the policies.The negative impact that perceptive bias will have on the U.S.and U.S.-China relations.