唐山财政支出对经济高质量发展的影响研究

On the Impact of Tangshan's Financial Expenditure to High Quality Economic Development

财政支出是推进当地民生事业和公共事业发展的主要资金来源,事关各项事业发展的成败。本文选取2009—2020年唐山财政支出各项数据,用线性回归模型分析各类财政支出与经济发展的关系,结果如下:(1)公共服务及安全支出与经济增长呈负相关,应控制在合理的支出水平;(2)民生支出与经济增长呈较强正相关,应增加调整民生支出;(3)农林水及环保支出与经济增长呈负相关,但考虑此类支出作用于经济时限长应保持合理支出;(4)科技文化支出与经济增长呈正相关,应完善科技文化支出;(5)交通运输支出与经济增长呈负相关,但考虑此类支出属基础设施间接作用于经济增长应加大交通运输支出;(6)城乡社区支出与经济增长呈正相关,但更多依靠政府性基金预算安排支出。

Financial expenditure is the main source of funds for promoting the development of local people's livelihood and public utilities,which is related to the success or failure of various undertakings.This article selects various data of fiscal expenditures of Tangshan from 2009 to 2020 and uses a linear regression model to analyze the relationship between various fiscal expenditures and economic development.The results are as follows:(1)Public service and security expenditures are negatively correlated with economic growth and should be controlled at a reasonable level of expenditure;(2)There is a strong positive correlation between livelihood expenditure and economic growth,and it is necessary to increase and adjust livelihood expenditure;(3)The expenditure on agriculture,forestry,water,and environmental protection is negatively correlated with economic growth,but considering the long-term impact of such expenditure on the economy,reasonable expenditure should be maintained;(4)There is a positive correlation between technological and cultural expenditures and economic growth,and it is necessary to improve technological and cultural expenditures;(5)Transportation expenditure is negatively correlated with economic growth,but considering that such expenditure is an indirect effect of infrastructure on economic growth,transportation expenditure should be increased;(6)Urban and rural community expenditure is positively correlated with economic growth,but it relies more on government funded budget arrangements for expenditure.