物质—观念视域下育龄群体的多孩生育意愿——基于CGSS2021问卷实验的分析

Research on the Willingness of Childbearing Age Groups to Have Multiple Children Under the Framework of Material and Concepts——An Experimental Conjoint Analysis Based on CGSS2021

当前我国已迈入低生育社会,探究育龄群体生育意愿真实影响因素、出台相应政策、释放多孩生育潜力是应对人口问题的重要举措。基于2021年中国综合社会调查问卷实验模块的数据,从物质条件和观念因素两个层面探究其对多孩生育意愿的影响,研究发现:居民对二孩生育持略微开放态度,但三孩生育意愿较为消极。物质层面的家庭收入、父母照料支持和优质育儿服务均能提高多孩生育意愿。就观念而言,性别偏好不再影响多孩生育意愿,但传统性别分工观念仍有着正向影响,且对家庭收入起正向调节作用。异质性检验发现,物质层面的城乡异质性小于性别,城乡二元生育格局发生变化,经济在城市二孩生育意愿上的效用大于农村;父母提供隔代照料会增加女性的二孩生育意愿,当经济能力允许时,男性比女性更期望生育三孩。研究结果表明,生育政策应着力于有一定潜力的二孩生育,推动支持型的家庭生育政策、建设育儿友好型社会、建立整体性的生育支持体系是走出低生育陷阱的主要方向。

At present,China has entered into a phase of low fertility rates.Investigating the genuine influencing factors on the fertility intentions of childbearing-age individuals and implementing corresponding policies to unlock the potential for higher-order childbearing is a crucial measure to address population-related challenges.Utilizing data from survey experiment of the 2021 China General Social Survey,this study examines the impact of both material conditions and ideational factors on the fertility intentions of having multiple children.The study finds that residents generally hold a somewhat open attitude toward having a second child,but exhibit a more negative inclination towards having a third child.On the material dimension,factors such as household income,parental care support,and the availability of high-quality child-rearing services can enhance the willingness to have multiple children.On the ideational front,gender preferences no longer significantly affect fertility intentions,but traditional gender role perceptions still exert a positive influence,and they also have a positive moderating effect on household income.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the urban-rural divide in material conditions is smaller than that of gender,reflecting a shifting urban-rural dualistic fertility pattern,with economic utility for having a second child being greater in urban areas than in rural areas.Parental provision of intergenerational care is associated with an increased willingness among women to have a second child.When economic capacity permits,men express a higher desire for the birth of a third child compared to women.The research findings suggest that fertility policies should focus on the potential for second-child fertility,promote supportive family-oriented reproductive policies,establish a child-friendly society,and develop a comprehensive system of reproductive support as the primary direction to break out of the low fertility trap.