经济增长目标策略能否为高质量发展增效?

Can the Strategy of Economic Growth Targets Enhance the Efficiency of High-quality Development?

中国实践多年的经济增长目标策略能否与新时代的高质量发展“携手共进”?文章基于经济增长核算理论计算了高质量发展指标,利用地级市及以上城市面板数据系统分析此问题。研究表明,过高的经济目标不利于高质量发展,结论通过了内生性偏误等系列稳健性检验。异质性分析发现,中央发展理念的转变促进了高质量发展;经济目标过度偏离资源禀赋、以硬约束表述经济增长目标、“层层加码”过高的地区,强化了经济增长目标约束对高质量发展的阻碍效应。机制检验发现,经济增长目标约束以倒逼资源配置拉高经济增速至目标的方式阻碍了高质量发展。上述结论为新时代优化经济增长目标策略,进而为高质量发展提质增效提供了重要线索。

Can the long-standing economic growth target strategy of China’s practice“forge ahead hand in hand”with the new era’s pursuit of high-quality development?This article calculates indicators of high-quality development based on the theory of economic growth accounting and analyzes this issue using a panel data system of prefecture-level cities and above.The study indicates that excessively high economic goals are not conducive to high-quality development,and the conclusion is supported by a series of robustness tests including endogeneity bias.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the shift in the central development ideology promotes high-quality development.Economic goals deviating excessively from resource endowments,express⁃ing economic growth goals with rigid constraints,and excessive“layering”in certain regions all lead to an ero⁃sion effect on high-quality development under the constraint of growth targets.Mechanism testing finds that the constraint of growth targets hinders high-quality development by driving resource allocation to elevate eco⁃nomic growth speed to meet targets.The above findings provide important clues for optimizing the economic growth target strategies in the new era so as to enhance the quality and efficiency of high-quality development.