1990—2019年全球帕金森病疾病负担的APC分析

APC analysis of the global disease burden of Parkinson ' s disease from 1990 to 2019

目的 分析1990—2019年全球帕金森病疾病负担的趋势,探讨年龄、时期、队列对帕金森病疾病负担发生风险的影响。方法 通过收集分析1990—2019年全球帕金森病的疾病负担数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析全球帕金森病疾病负担的变化趋势,采用年龄-时期-队列模型(APC模型)分析全球帕金森病疾病负担的发生风险的年龄、时期和队列效应。结果 1990—2019年全球的帕金森病的标化伤残调整寿命年(DALY)率总体无变化趋势(P>0.05),男性和女性的标化DALY率分别为上升和下降趋势,男性的标化DALY率从102.86/10万上升至106.44/10万,年平均上升速度为0.119%[平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)=0.119,t=2.559,P=0.010],女性的标化DALY率从61.61/10万下降至59.91/10万,年平均下降速度为0.097%(AAPC=-0.997,t=2.565,P=0.010)。APC模型结果显示,1990—2019年帕金森病DALY率风险的年龄效应为随年龄的增大先增加后降低(P<0.05);时期效应为随年份的增加而增大(P<0.05);队列效应为随出生队列的发展而降低(P<0.05)。结论 1990—2019年,全球人群帕金森病疾病负担总体无变化趋势,男性为上升趋势,女性为下降趋势,疾病负担发生风险随着年龄的增长先增长后下降,随着年份的增加而增加,随着出生队列的增长而降低,需加强老年人等特殊人群的预防工作,降低未来全球帕金森病的疾病负担。

Objective Analysis of the trends in the global disease burden of Parkinson's disease from 1990-2019 and to explore the impact of age,period,and cohort on the risk of developing the disease burden of Parkinson's disease.Methods By collecting and analyzing the global disease burden of Parkinson's disease from 1990 to 2019,the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of the disease burden of Parkinson's disease,and the age-period-cohort model(APC model)was used to analyze the age,period and cohort effects of the disease burden of Parkinson's disease.Results The global standard disability-adjusted life years(DALY)rate for Parkinson's disease showed no overall trend from 1990 to 2019(P>0.05),the standard DALY rate(per 100000 population)of males and females increased and decreased,respectively.The standard DALY rate of males increased from 102.86 to 106.44,with an annual average increase rate of 0.119%[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.119,t=2.559,P=0.010].The normalized DALY rate(per 100000 population)in females decreased from 61.61 to 59.91,with an annual average rate of 0.097%(AAPC=-0.097,t=2.565,P=0.010).Results of the APC model showed that the age effect of DALY rate risk of PD increased first and then decreased with increasing age during 1990-2019(P<0.05).The period effect increased with the increase of year(P<0.05).The cohort effect decreased with the progression of the birth cohort(P<0.05).Conclusion From 1990 to 2019,there was no change in the global disease burden of Parkinson's disease,Males showed an upward trend and females showed a downward trend.The risk of disease burden increased first and then decreased with the increase of age,increased with the increase of years,and decreased with the increase of birth cohort.Prevention efforts should be strengthened in special groups such as the elderly.Reducing the future global burden of Parkinson's disease.