央行数字货币与现金:替代还是共存

Central Bank Digital Currencies and Cash:Substitution or Coexist?

在数字化时代的货币新格局下,本文重点探讨央行数字货币的兴起与现金的未来,并基于零售型央行数字货币对现金的不同替代程度系统分析其形成的经济效应。结果表明:第一,央行数字货币的产生是由数字化时代内在需求推动的,是技术进步和中央银行发展的必然结果,其中零售型央行数字货币将与现金长期共存,并对现金需求和经济金融体系产生深远影响;第二,零售型央行数字货币对现金需求的影响存在不确定性。基于支付工具选择理论,从交易便利性和持有收益性来看,零售型央行数字货币将对现金产生替代,但考虑到匿名性与普惠性需求,零售型央行数字货币难以完全替代现金;第三,通过不完全替代现金和银行存款,零售型央行数字货币将对银行体系、金融稳定、货币政策等方面产生影响,而在完全替代条件下,负利率政策的可行性与有效性需要重新评估。基于此,各国应该充分认识央行数字货币发行可能带来的利与弊,更为准确地把握零售型央行数字货币及其与现金的关系,并在试点中基于本国实际不断进行检验和修正,以逐步形成更为科学合理的货币新格局。

Under the new pattern of money in the digital era,this paper focuses on the rise of central bank digital currency(CBDC)and the future of cash,and systematically analyzes the economic effects of central bank digital currency based on the different degrees of substitution of cash by central bank digital currency.The results show that:first,the emergence of central bank digital currency is driven by the inherent demand in the digital era,which is the inevitable result of technological progress and the development of central banks,in which retail central bank digital currency will coexist with cash for a long time and have a profound impact on cash demand and economic and financial system;Second,there is uncertainty about the impact of retail central bank digital currencies on cash demand.Based on the theory of payment instrument selection,from the perspective of transaction convenience and holding income,retail central bank digital currency will have a substitution effect on cash,but considering the need for anonymity and inclusiveness,retail central bank digital currency is difficult to completely replace cash.Third,by not completely replacing cash and bank deposits,retail central bank digital currency will have an impact on the commercial banking system,financial stability,monetary policy,etc.,and under the condition of complete replacement,the feasibility and effectiveness of the“negative interest rate”policy needs to be re-evaluated.Based on this,countries should fully understand the possible advantages and disadvantages of central bank digital currency issuance,more accurately grasp the retail central bank digital currency and its relationship with cash,and continuously test and revise based on their own actual conditions in the pilot,so as to gradually form a more scientific and reasonable new pattern of currency.