中国人口性别偏好的变迁研究(2010-2021)

The Transition of Gender Preference in China:2010-2021

本文利用中国综合社会调查(CGSS2010-2021),描述分析了中国人口性别偏好随年龄、时期和世代的变化趋势。结果显示,人们的儿子偏好与年龄呈U型趋势。随着时间的推移,中国民众的儿女无所谓偏好有所下降,儿子偏好基本持平,女儿偏好显著提升。结合我国近十年来生育政策的调整,女儿偏好的时期变化趋势集中体现了政策释放效应。生育政策调整对弱化民众的性别偏好,促进出生性别比向正常回归具有积极意义。不同代际的性别偏好呈现从“60后”“70后”的儿女双全偏好向“70后”末期“80后”的儿女无所谓偏好的过渡,进而发展到“95后”的儿女都不要。不过,性别偏好的代际效应并非线性变化,具有一定的波动与反复。我国民众的性别偏好与中国的现代化进程、生育政策调整以及市场经济转型等重要历史事件有较大的关联。

Based on the data from Chinese General Social Survey 2010-2021,the paper analyzes gender preference changes with age,period and cohort in China.The results show that son preference distributes as a U-shape by age groups but generally maintains in a level unchanged from 2010 to 2021,while no-gender preference declines and daughter preference significantly rises.The review of the fertility policy adjustment in the past decade shows that the change of daughter preference mainly reflects the release effect of the birth control policy,the fertility policy adjustment is of great significance for the weakening gender preference of the people and contribute to the sex ratio at birth returning to a normal range.Gender preferences across different cohorts changes from both-sonand-daughter preference of the post-1960s and early post-1970s to no gender preference of the late post-1970s and 1980s,and the post-1995s show an increasing preference of neither-son-nor-daughter preference.Yet,the cohort effect of gender preference fluctuates by a certain range instead of a linear pattern change.Generally speaking,the gender preference changes simultaneously with the modernization process,the adjustment of fertility policy and the market economic transition in China.