西北四省太阳能资源分布与长期变化趋势分析

Analysis on solar energy resources distribution of four provinces in northwestern China and long-term variation

根据我国西北四省1978—2017年的观测数据,分析该区域太阳总曝辐量的空间分布特征,绘制太阳能资源区划图,并分析了以往研究中未涉及的太阳总曝辐量长期变化趋势。结果表明:西北四省多年平均年太阳总曝辐量为3 676~7 036 MJ/m^(2),且自西北向东南逐渐递减,高值区主要在青海大部、甘肃河西西部、宁夏大部与陕西北部。各季节太阳总曝辐量分布特征为夏季最高、春秋季次之、冬季最低。西北四省大部分地区太阳总曝辐量长期变化呈减少趋势,少部地区呈增加趋势,其中青海中西部区域减少最为明显,甘肃河西西部与武威地区、陕北部分地区增加趋势明显。在四季中,秋季太阳总曝辐量呈减少趋势的范围最大,春季太阳总曝辐量呈增加趋势的范围最大。研究结果对掌握西北四省太阳能资源的长期变化趋势与光伏电厂长期收益及风险防范有参考价值。

According to the meteorological data of four provinces in northwestern China from 1978 to 2017,the spatial distribution characteristics of the total solar radiation in this region are analyzed.Based on the solar energy resources zoning map,the long-term variation trend of the total solar radiation in this region that has not been studied is analyzed.And the results show that the average annual radiation of recent years varies from 3676 to 7036 MJ/m2.The irradiance gradually decreases from northwest to southeast,and the high-value areas mainly locate in most portions of Qinghai,western Hexi Region of Gansu,most portions of Ningxia and northern Shaanxi.The seasonal solar radiation peaks in summer and bottoms out in winter.In long term,the total solar radiation of the four provinces shows a decreasing trend,and that of the central and western Qinghai is of the highest descent rate,while that of western Hexi Region and some parts of northern Shaanxi shows prominent increases.The variation trend of total solar radiation varies in four seasons,the value shows the most prominent decrease tendency in autumn while shows increase tendency in spring.The understanding on long-term variation tendency of solar energy resources provides references for the long-term profiting and risk prevention of photovoltaic power plants.