基于EW-AHP改良未确知测度理论的泥石流危险性评价方法

Debris Flow Hazard Evaluation Method Based on EW-AHP Modified Unconfirmed Measure Theory

针对泥石流危险性评价中确定指标权重过度主观的缺陷,以甘肃省陇南市武都区两水村大湾沟泥石流为例,根据其地质环境特征,选取一次泥石流最大冲出量、流域面积、主沟长度、流域相对高差、泥沙补给段长度比、24 h最大降雨量、人口密度共7个因子作为泥石流危险性评价指标,引入熵权和层次分析法(EW-AHP)组合赋权确定指标权重,建立基于未确知测度理论的单钩泥石流危险性评价模型。对研究区泥石流危险性评价结果表明:结合评价指标的主、客观赋权,本评价模型的评价结果较符合现场调查结论,说明评价方法合理有效,可为今后泥石流危险性评价提供一种新途径。

This paper discusses the shortcomings and errors of the index weighting method in assessing the risk of thunderstorms and gives the example of thunderstorms in Dawangou,Liangshui Village,Wudu District,Longnan City,Gansu Province.In accordance with the characteristics of this geological environment,seven factors are selected as the index for flash flood risk assessment,including the maximum discharge of flash flood,the catchment area,the length of the catchment,the relative difference in the height of the catchment area,the ratio of the length of the sediment flow section,the maximum rainfall in 24 hours,and the population density.To determine the index weights,a combined EW-AHP weighting method will be adopted,and a single-hook storm water hazard assessment model based on uncertain dimensional theory will be developed.The results of the landslide risk assessment in the study area show that the results are consistent with the results of the field survey,taking into account the overall subjective and objective weighting of the assessment indicators,indicating the reasonableness and validity of the assessment methodology.This provides a new approach for future landslide risk assessment.