河北省建筑业碳排放效率时空演化及达峰路径分析

Space-time Evolution and Peak Path Analysis of Carbon Emission Efficiency of Construction Industry in Hebei Province

为了从建筑业角度探索“碳达峰与碳中和”的实现路径,实现建筑业减排目标,基于考虑非期望产出的SBM模型与改进BP神经网络结合情景分析法,对2000—2019年河北省11个地市建筑业排放效率时空演变特征及碳达峰情景进行研究。研究结果表明:1)2010—2019年河北省建筑业碳排放效率距离生产前沿面存在26%的发展潜力,说明当前河北省建筑业的发展中存在着较大的资源浪费;2)河北省建筑业碳排放效率存在显著的空间分异,空间分布格局由“西部高、东部低”向“中部高、南北低”转变;3)在基准情景下,河北省建筑业未能实现碳达峰;低碳情景下可以在2030年实现达峰目标;而强化情景下,则能够促使达峰时间提前到2027年。同时提出“以政策调控为主导、以市场合作为辅助、以技术升级为根本”的减排路径。

In order to explore the realization path of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"from the perspective of the construction industry and achieve the emission reduction target of the construction industry,this paper,based on the SBM model considering the undesired output and the improved BP neural network combined with the scenario analysis method,studied the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of construction industry emission efficiency and carbon peaking scenarios in 11 prefectures and cities in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2019.The research results show that:1)From 2010 to 2019,the carbon emission efficiency of the construction industry in Hebei Province has a development potential of 26%from the production frontier,indicating that there is a large waste of resources in the current development of the construction industry in Hebei Province;2)There are significant spatial differences in the carbon emission efficiency of the construction industry in Hebei Province,and the spatial distribution pattern has changed from"high in the west and low in the east"to"high in the middle and low in the north and south";3)Under the baseline scenario,the construction industry in Hebei Province failed to achieve the carbon peak;under the low-carbon scenario,the peak target can be achieved in 2030;and under the enhanced scenario,the peak time can be advanced to 2027.At the same time,it proposes an emission reduction path that is"led by policy regulation,supplemented by market cooperation,and based on technological upgrading".