矿产勘查市场周期性波动与我国矿产勘查趋势分析

Cyclical fluctuations of mineral exploration market and analysis of mineral exploration trends in China

在社会经济发展的驱动下,矿产勘查市场具有明显的周期性波动,包括长周期变化、中短周期变化和随机性变化。澳大利亚50年矿产勘查市场变化表明,经济发展的长周期变化决定了矿产资源供需关系基本面,矿产资源供需关系基本面决定了矿产勘查投入的长周期变化;经济发展中短周期变化决定了矿产品价格周期性变化,矿产品价格周期性变化决定了矿产勘查投入的中短周期变化。在国家新一轮找矿突破战略行动驱动下,我国矿产勘查活动进入新一轮增长周期,并呈现出与全球不同的变化特征。2020年以来,我国矿产勘查投入连续4年实现增长,且增速逐年扩大,2023年同比增长25.4%,矿产勘查市场内生回升动力不断增强。2016年之后,主要受国内政策环境的影响,我国矿产勘查投入变化偏离了全球勘查市场走势。综合判断,我国矿产勘查市场正处在长中短周期叠加、政策环境发生明显改善的特殊阶段。经济发展长周期变化和中短周期变化对矿产勘查投入形成较大的下行压力,而政策环境改善对市场形成了较强的上行拉力,未来2~3 a将是政策红利集中释放的时间,本轮矿产勘查增长周期可能将延续2~3 a时间。

Driven by the social economic development,the changes of mineral exploration market show obvious cyclical fluctuations,which consist of long cycle changes,medium and short cycle changes,and random changes.Changes of mineral exploration market in past 50 years in Australia indicated that long cycle changes of economic growth resulted in the basic trend of supply and demand relationship of mineral resources,and the relationship of mineral supply and demand resulted in the long cycle changes of mineral exploration expenditure;medium and short cycle changes of economic growth resulted in the cyclical fluctuations of mineral prices,and the cyclical fluctuations of mineral prices resulted in the medium and short cycle changes of mineral exploration expenditure.Stimulated by the new round of strategic prospecting project,mineral exploration got into a rising period and showed different features compared with global exploration.The mineral exploration expenditure has risen up for 4 years continuously since 2020,and its growth rates speed up year by year.The mineral exploration expenditure increased by 25.4%in 2023,and the internal forces of the exploration market gets strengthened substantially.Compared with global exploration,the change of mineral exploration in China deviates its normal market trends after 2016,and mostly is more affected by domestic policy environment.It can be concluded from domestic economic development that the mineral exploration market is in a special stage which long cycle changes is overlapped by medium and short cycle changes,and policy environment is improved remarkably.The long cycle changes and the medium and short cycle changes of economic development exert great downward pressure on mineral exploration,and the remarkable improvement of policy environment forms a great upward pulling force for mineral exploration.The policy dividend will be released in 2-3 years,which implies that the rising stage of mineral exploration be extended by 2-3 years.