2023年中国铜工业供需形势分析

Supply and demand situation of China’s copper industry in 2023

2023年,国际形势日趋复杂,全球经济变化、地缘政治危机和逆全球化思维都对全球铜工业发展格局产生了较大影响。在此背景下,由于新能源、新技术等高速发展的新兴产业的带动,全球铜工业仍保持了平稳运行,精炼铜生产与消费都保持了较好的增长态势,中国铜工业面对复杂严峻的国际形势和艰巨繁重的国内改革发展稳定任务,也保持了稳中有升的运行态势。2023年,中国铜工业在生产方面保持了平稳增长,精炼铜产量增速超过两位数;企业经济效益也由降转升,全年规模以上企业营收与利润双双增长;铜冶炼回收率和综合能耗等生产技术指标不断向好;产业结构进一步优化,铜冶炼产能在区位优势的带动下布局越发分散,铜加工产能布局则高度集中在龙头区域;固定资产投资保持快速增长,但主要集中在下游领域;下游消费方面,精炼铜消费增速好于预期,从消费领域看呈现明显分化,电源和电网工程完成投资进度加快,交通运输领域乘用车产销量保持较快增长,但房地产和电子信息行业则表现疲软;贸易方面,铜原料进口和下游产品出口都保持增长态势,特别是铜原料进口方面,合计进口铜金属量远超历年。中国铜工业经过二十年的高速发展,已经成为全球第一大铜生产国与铜消费国,拥有完整的产业链条和先进的生产工艺技术,但中国铜工业在产业结构上仍存在着突出问题:原料供应以进口为主的局面短期内难以改变,原料对外依存度不断攀升;铜冶炼产能持续扩张,原料供应紧张,加工费下行风险加大;缺乏大型国际化矿业公司,企业在盈利能力和话语权上表现较弱。聚焦存在的问题与风险,中国铜工业如何适应当前国际国内形势,保障原材料供应安全和铜工业强国建设,是当前铜工业面临的最重要问题。建议继续深入开展铜工业供给侧结构性改革;多种方式夯实资源基础,提高资源保障程度;强化产业间协同、绿色、循环发展;加强新技术研发与推广,推动铜工业高质量发展。

In 2023,the international situation is becoming increasingly complex,with global economic changes,geopolitical crises,and anti-globalization thinking all having a significant impact on the development pattern of the global copper industry.In this context,driven by the rapid development of emerging industries such as new energy and new technologies,the global copper industry has maintained stable operation,and refined copper production and consumption have maintained a good growth trend.Faced with complex and severe international situations and arduous domestic reform and development tasks,China’s copper industry has also maintained a stable and upward trend.In 2023,China’s copper industry maintained stable growth in production,with refined copper production growth exceeding double digits.The economic benefits of enterprises have also shifted from descending to ascending,with both revenue and profit of large-scale enterprises increasing throughout the year.The production technology indicators such as copper smelting recovery rate and comprehensive energy consumption are continuously improving.The industrial structure is further optimized,and the layout of copper smelting capacity is becoming more scattered driven by geographical advantages,while the layout of copper processing capacity is highly concentrated in leading regions.Fixed assets investment maintained rapid growth,but mainly concentrated in downstream areas.In terms of downstream consumption,the growth rate of refined copper consumption is better than expected,showing significant differentiation in the consumption sector.The investment progress in power supply and power grid engineering has accelerated,and the production and sales of passenger cars in the transportation sector have maintained a rapid growth.However,the real estate and electronic information industries have shown weak performance.In terms of trade,both the import of copper raw materials and the export of downstream products have maintained a growth trend,especially in the import of copper raw materials,with a total import volume of copper metal far exceeding previous years.After 20 years of rapid development,China’s copper industry has become the world’s largest producer and consumer of copper,with a complete industrial chain and advanced production technology.However,there are still prominent problems in the industrial structure of China’s copper industry.The situation where raw material supply is mainly imported is difficult to change in the short term,and the dependence on foreign raw materials continues to rise.There are the continuous expansion of copper smelting capacity,tight supply of raw materials,and increased risk of downward processing costs.There is a lack of large international mining companies,resulting in weaker profitability and discourse power.Focusing on the existing problems and risks,how China’s copper industry can adapt to the current international and domestic situation,ensure the safety of raw material supply,and build a strong copper industry is the most important issue in the current copper industry.The suggestion is to continue to deepen the supply side structural reform of the copper industry,to consolidate the resource foundation in various ways and improve the degree of resource guarantee,to strengthen inter industry collaboration,green and circular development,to strengthen the research and promotion of new technologies and promote the high-quality development of the copper industry.