缘何企业逆周期出现——基于政策干预的逻辑

Why Do Enterprises Countercyclically Enter?--Based on the Logic of Government Intervention

社会分工和交易成本理论无法解释企业逆周期出现的特征事实,本文基于政策干预下企业关联的视角回答了上述问题。通过手工搜集和整理2007—2009年每天全部市场主体进入市场、企业融资、招投标和股权关联数据,以2009年通过的大规模投资计划为契机,在年月DID研究设计基础上,本文分析了企业逆周期出现的原因和特点。研究发现:(1)干预政策显著促进了企业逆周期出现,一系列稳健性检验证实了结论的可靠性;(2)其内在机制在于市场信用融资得以改善和分工深化水平不断提升;(3)此过程中企业关联性不断增加,特别是与集体企业和国有企业的关联。政策干预逻辑能较好地解释企业逆周期进入现象,但市场资源配置中的国有企业偏向导致企业与国有企业关联性不断增加,这一趋势需要得到足够重视。本文分析对认识政策干预的社会效益与成本具有帮助。

The social division of labor and transaction cost theory fail to explain the characteristic fact of corporate countercyclical emergence,and we answer the above question from the perspective of corporate linkages under policy intervention.We analyze the causes and characteristics of the corporate countercyclical emergence based on the large-scale investment plan adopted in 2009 and based on the yearly and monthly DID research design.We find that the intervention policy significantly contributes to the corporate countercyclical emergence.The underlying mechanism lies in the improvement of credit financing in the market and the increasing level of deepening of the division of labor.Corporate linkages are increasing in this process,especially with collective and state-owned enterprises.The logic of policy intervention is a good explanation for analyzing the phenomenon of countercyclical entry,but the tendency of the state-owned enterprise bias in the allocation of market resources leading to an increasing linkage between firms and stated-owned enterprises also needs to be given sufficient attention.The analyses in this paper are helpful in recognizing the social benefits and costs of policy interventions.