央地联动财政行为与稳就业——基于均衡性转移支付视角

Central-Local Linked Fiscal Behavior and Stable Employment--Based on the Perspective of Equalization Transfers

就业是最大的民生。本文基于均衡性转移支付视角,利用2012—2015年县级均衡性转移支付数据,匹配全国税收调查数据,考察央地联动财政行为的稳就业效应。研究发现,均衡性转移支付促进了企业雇佣,且结论稳健。机制表明,公共服务、税费优惠和财政补贴是关键作用渠道。异质性分析显示,在劳动密集型企业、小型微利企业、纵向财政失衡高地区和创业活跃程度高地区,均衡性转移支付对企业雇佣的促进效果更为明显。本文结论为进一步做好稳就业工作,提供了政策参考。

Based on the perspective of equalization transfers,this paper uses county-level equalization transfer data from 2012—2015,matched with national tax survey data,to examine the employment stabilization effect of central-local linked fiscal behavior.It is found that equalization transfers promote business hiring,and the conclusions are robust.The mechanism suggests that public services,tax incentives and fiscal subsidies are the key channels of action.Heterogeneity analysis shows that equalization transfers promote business hiring more effectively in labor-intensive firms,small and micro-profit firms,regions with high vertical fiscal imbalances,and regions with high entrepreneurial activity.The conclusions of this paper provide policy references for further work on stabilizing employment.