我国碳排放交易试点政策对试点省市减排效果及影响路径分析

Analysis of the Emission Reduction Effect and Impact Path of China's Carbon Emission Trading Pilot Policy on Pilot Provinces and Cities

碳排放交易作为促减排的成熟手段之一,量化其对城市生产中碳排放及影响路径对我国未来促发展保生态有重要意义。本研究旨在从碳排放和碳排放强度两个角度,采用双重差分模型探究碳排放交易试点政策对减排效果的影响并利用中介效应方法厘清其中间机制。结果表明试点政策显著降低碳排放量以及碳排放强度,并且碳排放交易试点政策可通过提高试点城市的技术创新能力,调整能源结构和产业结构,降低碳排放量和降低碳排放强度以提高减排效率。本研究认为未来可以通过根据不同城市的发展情况鼓励建设高新技术产业和引进和国外先进的“绿色”生产链以及根据其发展需求不同调整第二产业占比以降低碳排放量和降低碳排放强度。

Carbon emissions trading has gradually become one of the mature means to promote emission reduction.Therefore,quantifying its impact on carbon emissions and its impact path is of great significance for China's future development and ecological protection.This study aims to explore the impact of carbon emission trading pilot policies on emission reduction effects from the perspectives of carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity,using Difference in Difference model in causal inference methods,and to clarify the intermediate mechanism from carbon emission trading policies to carbon emission changes using the Mediation Effect method.The results indicated that the pilot policy significantly reduces carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity,and the carbon emission trading pilot policy can improve emission reduction efficiency by improving the technological innovation ability of the pilot cities,reducing carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity.Therefore,this study believes that it can reduce carbon emissions and intensity by encouraging the construction of high-tech industries and introducing advanced"green"production chains from abroad based on the development situation of different cities,as well as adjusting the proportion of the secondary industry according to theirdevelopmentneeds.