“虚拟-实体”关联性与经济增长——基于中美分部门数据的比较分析

The"Fictitious-Real"Correlation and Economic Growth Comparative analysis based on Chinese and US sub-sector data

实体经济和虚拟经济良性互动是实现高质量经济增长的重要条件,文章对虚拟经济创造GDP逻辑进行了分析,并构建纳入“虚实关联”的三部门投入产出模型,利用中国和美国2002-2020年分部门投入产出数据,对虚拟经济的自我循环及与实体经济的关联性进行了测度。结果显示:美国虚拟经济通过自我循环的直接拉动能力高于中国约10-20%;通过实体A部门的间接拉动能力分别低于中国约59%,而通过实体B部门则高于中国约7.4%;在对经济增长的贡献中,美国虚拟经济部门对经济增长的贡献更高;中国实体A部门对经济增长的贡献更高,但呈现逐年下降趋势。鉴于此,为了实现高质量经济增长,中国需警惕“脱实向虚”,重点在于实体经济;而美国需警惕“虚实脱钩”,重点在于虚拟经济。但二者都需要通过金融供给侧结构性改革提升虚拟经济与实体经济的关联性,以促进经济增长。

Healthy interaction between the real economy and the fictitious economy is an important condition for achieving high-quality economic growth.This paper analyzes the logic of GDP creation in the fictitious economy,and constructs a three-sector input-output model incorporating the"fictitious-real"sector,and measures the self-circulation of the fictitious economy and its correlation with the real economy using input-output data by sector for China and the United States from 2002 to 2020.The results show that the pulling power to economic growth shows that the direct pulling power of the U.S.fictitious economy through self-circulation is about 10-20%higher than that of China;the indirect pulling power of the fictitious economy through sector A of the real economy is about 59%lower than that of China,while the indirect pulling power through sector B of the real economy is about 7.4%higher than that of China.In terms of contribution to economic growth,the fictitious economy sector in the U.S.contributes more to economic growth;the Sector-A of real economy in China contributes more to economic growth,but shows a declining trend year by year.In view of this,in order to achieve high-quality economic growth,China needs to be wary of"shifting from the real to the fictitious"and focus on the real economy,while the U.S.needs to be wary of"decoupling between real and fictitious"and focus on the fictitious economy;However,both need to enhance the relevance of the fictitious economy to the real economy through financial supply-side reforms to form a good feedback mechanism of"fictitious-real interaction".