2021年我国196个城市人均预期寿命及其影响因素

Average life expectancy and its main influencing factors among residents in 196 cities of China,2021

目的了解我国196个城市的人均预期寿命现况,并分析其主要影响因素,为制定和完善相关政策提供参考依据。方法基于2021年全国健康城市评价指标数据,采用Spearman相关性分析对人均预期寿命与各指标间的相关性进行初步判断,并采用多元逐步线性回归模型分析影响人均预期寿命的主要因素。结果2021年,我国196个城市的人均预期寿命为(79.96±2.44)岁。多元逐步线性回归分析结果显示,居民健康素养水平(Β=0.156)、国家卫生县城(乡镇)占比(Β=0.017)、人均地区生产总值(Β=0.054)、15岁以上人群吸烟率(Β=-0.066)、严重精神障碍患者规范管理率(Β=0.074)、经常参加体育锻炼人口比例(Β=0.042)、甲乙类传染病发病率(Β=-0.003)是影响人均预期寿命的主要因素(P<0.05)。结论人均预期寿命受多方面因素影响,未来应通过提升居民健康素养,重视居民心理健康和精神卫生,加强国家卫生城镇创建和健康城镇健康细胞建设,积极应对人口老龄化等措施,提高人均预期寿命。

Objective To investigate the average life expectancy and its main influencing factors among residents in 196 cities of China,and to provide reference for formulating and improving relevant policies.Methods Based on the data of national healthy city evaluation indicators in 2021,Spearman correlation analysis was used to preliminarily judge the correlation between per capita life expectancy and each indicator.Multiple stepwise linear regression model was used to analyze the main factors associated with life expectancy.Results The average life expectancy of residents in 196 cities was(79.96±2.44)in 2021.Multiple stepwise linear regression analysis showed that the health literacy level of residents(B=0.156),the proportion of national health counties(townships)(B=0.017),the per capita GDP(B=0.054),the smoking rate of people over 15 years old(B=-0.066),the standardized management rate of patients with severe mental disorders(B=0.074),the proportion of people who often participated in physical exercise(B=0.042),and the incidence of infectious diseases(class A and B)(B=-0.003)were the main factors associated with life expectancy(P<0.05).Conclusion The average life expectancy is associated with various factors.It is suggested that improving the health literacy of residents,attaching importance to residents'psychological health and mental hygiene,strengthening the establishment of national health towns and the construction of healthy towns healthy cells,and proactively responding to the population aging would be important for increasing average life expectancy.