回溯三届美国政府对古政策看美古关系未来形势及应对策略

The Forecast of the Future U.S.-Cuba Relations Through Retrospecting the Three U.S.Administrations’Policies Toward Cuba and Coping Strategies

随着近三届美国政府对古政策的变化,美古两国关系发生了巨大的转变,从奥巴马时期为实现关系正常化所做的破冰、合作到特朗普时期的停滞甚至对峙,再到当下拜登政府对两国问题的回避,均可看到美国政府对古政策的摇摆不定、缺乏统一性和延续性。分析三届美国政府对古政策的走向以及古巴当局的对策和反应,有助于在当今非对称性对抗的国际环境中更准确预测美古关系动态,在新时代更准确地为美古关系的当前困境提出应对策略。

With the changes in the policies of the three U.S.administrations toward Cuba in recent years,US-Cuba relations have undergone tremendous transformations,from ice-breaking and cooperation made during the Obama period to the stagnation and even confrontation during the Trump period,as well as the current Biden administration’s avoidance of the issues between the two countries,it can be seen that the U.S.administrations’policies toward Cuba are wavering,lacking unity and continuity.Analyzing the trend of the three U.S.administrations’policies toward Cuba and the countermeasures and reactions of the Cuban authorities will help to more accurately predict the dynamics of U.S.-Cuba relations in today’s international environment of asymmetric confrontation and more accurately propose coping strategies for the current dilemma in U.S.-Cuba relations in the new era.