基于需求响应的电力负荷预测与建模研究

Research on Load Forecasting and Modeling of Demand Response Uncertainty

电力负荷不确定性问题是需求响应不确定性问题的重要研究方向之一。准确、有效的电力系统负荷预测是保障电网安全、稳定运行和社会正常生产的重要前提。为了提高电力系统负荷预测的准确性,提出了HI-Informer模型进行电力负荷预测。该模型通过最小二乘法将历史惯性(HI)模型和Informer模型融合。实验结果显示,HI-Informer模型在电力负荷预测中表现出色,其预测结果与实际观测值高度吻合,成功捕捉了电力负荷趋势和季节性变化。相比之下,其他模型在某些情况下出现了明显的误差,未能有效捕捉相同特征。

The study of power load uncertainty is one of the important research directions of demand response uncertainty.The accurate and effective forecasting of electrical system load is a crucial prerequisite for ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power grid and the normal functioning of society.To enhance the accuracy of load forecasting,this study proposes the HIInformer model for electric load forecasting,which combines historical inertia modeling with the Informer model using the least squares method.The experimental results demonstrate that the HIInformer model excels in electric load forecasting.Its predictions closely match the actual observed values and successfully capture the trends and seasonal variations in electrical load.In contrast,other models exhibit noticeable errors in certain scenarios and fail to effectively capture the same characteristics.