四类重大林业有害生物的防控有效性分析

Effectiveness analysis on prevention and control of four kinds of major forest pests

利用普通最小二乘法的稳健标准误模型及似不相关回归模型,定量分析松材线虫Bursaphelenchus xylophilus、美国白蛾Hyphantria cunea、薇甘菊Mikania micrantha及林业害鼠(兔)4类重大林业有害生物的防控有效性。结果显示:预防措施可以显著使松材线虫、美国白蛾及薇甘菊的发生面积呈递减趋势,防治资金的使用效率为抑制薇甘菊扩散起到显著作用。对于松材线虫病的防控,应加强生物化学农药在媒介昆虫防治中的应用,提升防控资金的使用效果;轻度发生的美国白蛾可采用综合防治措施,中度及重度发生首选生物化学农药防治;薇甘菊主要采用化学及营林防治措施,轻度发生时可结合采用人工物理防治;轻度发生的林业害鼠(兔)可采用综合防治措施,中度及重度发生采用生物、化学及人工物理防治,当重度发生时,营林措施控制灾害扩散的效果最好。

Robust Standard Error Model of Ordinary Least Square method and Seemingly Unrelated Regression model were used to quantitatively analyze the prevention and control effectiveness of four kinds of major forest pests,including Bursaphelenchus xylophilus,Hyphantria cunea,Mikania micrantha,forest rat(rabbit).The results showed that preventive measures could significantly reduce the ocurrence area of B.xylophilus,H.cunea and M.micrantha,and the use efficiency of control funds also played a significant role in inhibiting the spread of M.micrantha.For the prevention and control of pine wilt disease,the application of biochemical pesticides in the control of vector insects should be strengthened,and the use effect of prevention and control funds should be improved;comprehensive control measures can be adopted for mild occurrence of H.cunea,and biochemical pesticides were preferred for moderate and severe cases;chemical and silvicultural control measures were mainly adopted to control M.micrantha,and can be combined with artificial physical control in case of mild occurrence;comprehensive control measures can be adopted for mild forest rat (rabbit) damage, andbiological, chemical and artificial physical control measures can be adopted for moderate and severeforest rat (rabbit) damage. When severe forest rat (rabbit) damage occurs, silvicultural control measureshave the best effect on controlling the spread of disaster.