基于多木桶模型的长三角城市群韧性水平评估研究

Resilience assessment of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration based on Multi-barrel Model

本文通过综合运用多木桶模型、熵值法、突变理论以及木桶理论,建立城市韧性水平评估模型。并从韧性系统的抵抗能力、吸收能力、恢复及适应能力三大特征出发,构建包括3个一级指标和12个二级指标的城市韧性三阶段评价指标体系。以我国长三角城市群为例,对2010—2019年长三角城市群整体以及其内部26个城市进行韧性度测算,并应用木桶理论按“直辖市-省会城市-地级市”的行政层级进行了时间变化分析。研究结果表明:样本年限内长三角城市群的整体韧性水平发展态势较为良好,达到中度韧性,但宣城、铜陵、池州3个地级市为长三角城市群韧性发展的短板所在,未来需要重点关注。此外,长三角城市群内各城市的韧性水平呈“中间大,两头小”的橄榄型结构;其中,上海的韧性水平一直处于高度韧性,在26个城市中居于首位,其韧性的三维能力异质性演化特征与木桶理论原理相吻合;省会城市中杭州的韧性水平短板的提升速度远高于南京、合肥,故而其韧性水平提升效果更为显著;而22个地级市的韧性水平则存在“东部高-西部低”的两极分化格局。

This paper established an evaluation model of urban resilience level by comprehensively using the multi-barrel model,the entropy method,the catastrophe theory and the barrel theory.And starting from the three characteristics of the resilience system's resistance,absorptive capacity,recovery and adaptability,a three-stage evaluation index system of urban resilience level,including three first-level and 12 second-level indicators,is constructed.Taking China's Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as an example,this paper calculated the resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and 26 cities in the urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2019.Then,applying the barrel theory,26 cities were analyzed over time according to the type of"Municipality directly under the Central Government-Provincial capital city-Prefecture level city".The results show that from 2010 to 2019,the overall resilience level of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has a good development trend and reached moderate resilience.However,Xuancheng,Tongling and Chizhou are the shortcomings of the resilient development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,which needs to be focused on in the future.In addition,the resilience level of cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration presents an olive-shaped structure of"large in the middle and small at both ends";Among them,Shanghai has always been highly resilient,ranking first among 26 cities;Its three-dimensional capability heterogeneity evolution of resilience is consistent with the principle of barrel theory.Among the provincial capital cities,Hangzhou's resilience short board has been improved much faster than Nanjing and Hefei.Hence,its resilience level improvement effect is more significant.Moreover,the resilience level of the 22 prefecture-level cities has a two-level differentiation pattern of"High in the east-Low in the west".