中国资源型收缩城市“人口-土地-产业”耦合协调分析

Characteristics of"population-land-industry"coordinated development of resource-based shrinking cities in China

推动资源型收缩城市“人口-土地-产业”协调发展是实现区域高质量发展的难点与挑战。本文构建人口、土地、产业发展水平评价指标体系,采用耦合协调模型对中国26个资源型收缩城市2008、2013与2018年“人口-土地-产业”协调发展状况进行分析。结果表明(:1)资源型收缩城市产业系统发展水平较高,土地系统发展处于中间水平,人口系统发展水平较低。各城市“人口-土地-产业”协调度均处于濒临失调和轻度失调等级,但多数城市具有上升趋势。(2)不同类型资源型收缩城市“人口-土地-产业”发展水平和协调度存在明显差异;从发展阶段来看,成熟型城市3大系统发展水平最高,而衰退型城市最低,2008和2013年协调度均值的排序为成长型>成熟型>再生型>衰退型,2018年为成长型>再生型>成熟型>衰退型;从主导产业来看,油气类城市3大系统发展水平最高,而煤炭类城市最低,协调度均值的排序在3个年份中均为油气类>黑色金属类>非金属类>森工类>煤炭类。(3)资源型收缩城市“人口-土地-产业”的协调发展模式以人口滞后型与土地滞后型为主。

Promoting the coordinated development of"population-land-industry"in resourcebased shrinking cities is the difficulty and challenge to realize regional high-quality development.This research constructed the evaluation index system of population,land and industrial development level,and used the coupling coordination model to analyze the"population-land-industry"coordinated development of 26 resource-based Shrinking Cities in China in 2008,2013 and 2018.The results show that:(1)The development level of industrial system in resourcebased cities is high,the development of land system is at the middle level,and the development of population system is low.The coordination degree of"population-land-industry"in each city is at the level of near imbalance and slight imbalance,but most cities have an upward trend;(2)There are obvious differences in the development level and coordination degree of population,land,and industry of different types of resource-based shrinking cities.From the development stage,the development level of grown-up cities is the highest,while that of recessionary cities is the lowest.In 2008 and 2013,the average coordination degree ranked as growing city>grownup city>regenerative city>recessionary city,and in 2018,it is growing city>regenerative city>grown-up city>recessionary city.From the perspective of leading industries,the development level of oil&gas-based cities is the highest,while that of coal-based cities is the lowest.In the three years,the order of the average coordination degree is oil&gas-based city>nonmetalbased city>ferrous metal-based city>forestry-based city>coal-based cities.(3)The coordinated development model of"population-land-industry"in resource-based shrinking cities is dominated by population lag and land lag.