1963—2022年呼伦贝尔市积温变化特征分析

Variation Characteristics of Accumulated Temperature in Hulunbuir City during 1963—2022

文章以呼伦贝尔市16个国家级气象观测站1963—2022年日平均气温观测数据为基础,计算每年≥0℃和≥10℃的活动积温、起止日期、持续日数,并通过统计分析、线性回归、M-K检验、小波分析等方法,对其时空分布及保证率、倾向率、突变及周期进行分析。结果表明:呼伦贝尔市≥0℃、≥10℃活动积温均呈现随纬度和海拔高度增加而增加的分布状态,1963—2022年积温显著增多,生长季变长,林区≥0℃活动积温在1992年前后发生突变,农区、林区≥10℃活动积温在1992年前后发生突变,牧区≥10℃活动积温在1995年前后发生突变,各区域活动积温均呈现一定的周期性变化。

Based on the daily average temperature observation data of 16 national meteorological observing stations in Hulunbuir City during 1963-2022,this paper calculated the annual accumulated temperature of≥0℃and≥10℃,the start and end date,and the duration.The temporal and spatial distribution,guarantee rate,dip rate,abrupt change and period of accumulated temperature were analyzed by statistical analysis,linear regression,M-K test and wavelet analysis methods.The results showed that:The accumulated temperature of≥0℃and≥10℃in Hulunbuir City increased with latitude and altitude,which had been increased significantly during 1963-2022,and the growing season became longer in the same time frame.The accumulated temperature of≥0℃in forest area changed abruptly around 1992,and the abrupt change in accumulated temperature of≥10℃in agricultural area and forest area also occurred around 1992.The accumulated temperature of≥10℃in pastoral area changed abruptly around 1995.The accumulated temperature varied periodically in all regions.