2000—2022年严重影响珠江口的台风暴潮增水规律分析

Analysis on Regularity of Storm Surge Severely Affecting Pearl River Estuary Form 2000 to 2022

台风暴潮严重影响社会经济发展,近年来在珠江口呈愈发严重的趋势。结合珠江口风暴潮特点定义了严重影响的风暴潮等级,筛选2000—2022年严重影响珠江口的热带气旋,对时空分布、路径、结构、极端风暴潮等特性进行分析,结果表明:①严重影响珠江口的台风暴潮每年发生0~2次,7—9月尤其是8、9月为珠江口防台关键期;②珠江口风暴潮遭遇天文潮概率具有一定随机性;③西北或西北偏西方向路径行进,珠江口以西、尤其是珠海至茂名一带登陆、登陆时中心风力达12级或以上的台风最易给珠江口带来严重风暴潮;④珠江口以西登陆的12级或以上的台风,登陆点距珠江口近的,即使风圈结构较小,也易导致严重风暴潮,但登陆点距离更远的,若风圈很大,同样会导致严重风暴潮;⑤珠江口极端风暴潮强度呈增强趋势,台风结构和路径特点存在一些共性和差异,其风暴潮增水过程特点其结构路径变化特点相一致,上游来水、天文潮状态和遭遇降雨情况均会影响风暴潮上溯过程。研究成果可为珠江口未来的风暴潮预报及防御工作提供借鉴。

Typhoon surge has a serious impact on social and economic development,and it has become more and more serious in recent years in the Pearl River Estuary.Based on the characteristics of storm surges in the Pearl River Estuary,the paper defines the storm surge levels with serious impacts.Through the analysis of the characteristics of Tropical Cyclone,such as space-time distribution,path,structure and extreme storm surges,which have severely affected the Pearl River Estuary from 2000 to 2002,the results show that:①Typhoon surges with severe impacts on the Pearl River Estuary occur 0 to 2 times per year,July to September,especially August and September are the critical period of typhoon defense.②The probability of storm surge encountering astronomical tides at the Pearl River Estuary is random.③Typhoons with northwest or northwest-west route,especially the landing area from Zhuhai to Maoming and center wind power above grade 12 are most likely to cause severe storm surges in the Pearl River Estuary.④Typhoons landing area west of the Pearl River Estuary,whose landing point is close to the Pearl River Estuary,will cause severe storm surges even if the wind circle structure is small,while those landing points farther away will require a large wind circle.⑤There are some similarities and differences in the characteristics of typhoon structure and path,and the characteristics of storm surge process are consistent with the characteristics of structural path change.Upstream water,astronomical tide status and rainfall during the period will affect the upstream process of storm surge The research results have guiding significance for the future storm surge forecast and defense work in the Pearl River Estuary.