基于灰色马尔科夫模型预测四川省肺癌死亡率趋势研究

Prediction of Lung Cancer Mortality Trend in Sichuan Province Based on Grey Markov Model

目的预测未来5年四川省肺癌死亡率变化趋势,为四川省加强肺癌防治提供理论依据。方法通过《四川统计年鉴》明确该省2005至2021年肺癌死亡率情况,运用灰色马尔科夫模型结合Matlab2017b软件对四川省未来5年的肺癌死亡率进行预测。结果灰色模型的预测精度为95.07%,通过马尔科夫链进行优化后,预测精度上升至98.06%,优化后的模型拟合预测效果更精准。灰色马尔科夫模型预测未来5年四川省肺癌死亡率将呈持续上升趋势。结论灰色马尔科夫模型可以对四川省肺癌死亡率进行较好的预测和拟合,该组合模型可以作为未来预测肺癌死亡率发展趋势的一种新方法,为肺癌防治提供理论依据。

Objective To predict change trend of lung cancer mortality in Sichuan Province in the next 5 years,and to provide theoretical basis for strengthening prevention and treatment of lung cancer in Sichuan Province.Methods The mortality rate of lung cancer in Sichuan Province from 2005 to 2021 was determined by Sichuan Statistical Yearbook.The grey Markov model and Matlab2017b software were used to predict mortality rate of lung cancer in Sichuan Province in the next 5 years.Results The prediction accuracy of the grey model was 95.07%.After optimization by Markov chain,prediction accuracy increased to 98.06%,and the optimized model was more accurate.The grey Markov model predicts that mortality rate of lung cancer in Sichuan Province would continue to rise in the next 5 years.Conclusion The grey Markov model could predict and fit the lung cancer mortality in Sichuan Province.The combined model could be used as a new method to predict the development trend of lung cancer mortality in the future,and provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of lung cancer.