河南省冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨灾害风险评估

Disaster Risk Assessment of Continuous Rain Weather in Winter Wheat Grain-filling Period in Henan Province

基于河南省24个农业气象观测站1981—2020年冬小麦发育期资料和91个气象观测站1961—2020年逐日气象观测资料、冬小麦产量资料,统计了河南省冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨过程均日数、过程均雨量、过程均日照时数、年均过程次数及多年发生频率,利用主成分分析法构建了连阴雨风险强度指数,从发生频率、风险强度指数、产量损失率对河南省冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨开展风险评估。结果表明:河南省冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨过程均日数、过程均日照时数、年均过程次数空间上均呈带状分布;构建的连阴雨风险强度指数对连阴雨灾害有较高的识别能力;连阴雨灾害发生频率、风险强度指数均呈纬向型分布,南部偏高、北部偏低;河南省冬小麦灌浆期连阴雨中、低风险区占比90.3%,高风险区主要分布在南阳东部地区。

Based on the winter wheat growth data from 24 agrometeorological stations in Henan Province from 1981 to 2020 and the daily meteorological observations from 91 meteorological stations and winter wheat yield from 1961 to 2020,the average days,precipitation and sunshine hours of continuous rain process as well as the annual average frequency and the multi-year frequency of continuous rain process during the grain filling period of winter wheat in Henan are counted.The risk intensity index of continuous rain is constructed by means of the principle component analysis,and the risk assessment of continuous rain during grain-filling stage of winter wheat is carried out from the perspectives of occurrence frequency,risk intensity index and yield loss rate.The results show that the continuous rain average days,average sunshine hours and average annual frequency during the winter wheat grain-filling period in Henan all present a zonal distribution in spatial scale.The constructed risk intensity index of continuous rain has higher ability to identify continuous rain disasters.The frequency and risk intensity index of continuous rain disasters both are zonally distributed,higher in the south and lower in the north.In Henan Province,the medium and low risk areas of continuous rain during grain-filling stage of winter wheat account for 90.3%,and the high-risk areas are mainly distributed in the eastern part of Nanyang.