2014-2021年浙江省余姚市肺癌发病现状及预测分析

Analysis and prediction of lung cancer incidence in Yuyao, Zhejiang, 2014−2021

目的 分析2014—2021年浙江省余姚市肺癌发病数据,了解户籍居民肺癌发病情况及变化趋势,并对未来4年发生率进行预测,为相关部门制定科学疾病防控策略提供依据。方法 收集宁波数字疾病预防控制平台慢性病监测模块中诊断日期为2014年1月1日至2021年12月31日的全部肺癌发病病例信息,计算肺癌粗发病率、中标/世标发病率、年龄别发病率(5岁组)、35~64岁组截缩发病率、0~74岁组累积发病率,运用Joinpoint软件计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)并分析不同年份的变化趋势。结果 2014—2021年浙江省余姚市累计报告新发肺癌8 968例,发病率为134.08/10万,中标发病率76.91/10万,世标发病率59.01/10万,35~64岁截缩发病率95.55/10万,0~74岁累积发病率7.26%;男性发病率(161.08/10万)高于女性(107.83/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=354.016,P<0.001);粗发病率、中标发病率和世标发病率均呈上升趋势(AAPC=6.38%,t=5.908,P=0.001;AAPC=4.40%,t=5.710,P=0.001;AAPC=4.85%,t=6.375,P=0.001);发病率随年龄增长呈上升趋势,在75~岁组达发病率高峰(519.74/10万);建立GM(1, 1)灰色预测模型预测2022—2025年肺癌发生率将继续呈上升趋势。结论 余姚市肺癌发病率高且呈上升趋势,防控工作面临巨大挑战。政府相关部门应建立筛查、诊疗、管理和死亡监测为一体的综合管理体系,科学采取全人群和以男性、中老年人为高危人群两者相结合的防控策略,降低肺癌发病率,减轻疾病负担。

Objective To understand the incidence pattern of lung cancer in residents in Yuyao,Zhejiang province,from 2014 to 2021,predict the incidence rate of lung cancer in the following four years,and provide evidence for effective prevention and control of lung cancer.Methods The information of all lung cancer cases diagnosed in Yuyao from January 1,2014 to December 31,2021 were collected from the chronic disease surveillance module of digital disease control platform of Ningbo.The crude incidence rate of lung cancer,the China/world population based standardized incidence rates,the age specific incidence rate(5-year-old group),the 35-64 years old truncated incidence rate and the 0-74 year old cumulative incidence rate were calculated,and software Joinpoint was used to calculate the average annual percentage of change(AAPC)to analyze the annual change trend of the incidence rate.Results From 2014 to 2021,a total of 8968 cases of lung cancer were reported in Yuyao,with the incidence rate of 134.08/100000,the China population based standardized incidence rate of 76.91/100000,the world population based standardized incidence rate of 59.01/100000,the 35-64 years old truncated incidence rate of 95.55/100000 and the 0-74 years old cumulative rate of 7.26%.The incidence rate in men(161.08/100000)was higher than that in women(107.83/100000),the difference was significant(χ^(2)=354.016,P<0.001).The crude incidence rate,the China population based standardized incidence rate and the world population based standardized incidence rate all showed an upward trends(AAPC=6.38%,t=5.908,P=0.001;AAPC=4.40%,t=5.710,P=0.001;AAPC=4.85%,t=6.375,P=0.001).The incidence rate increased with age,the peak of incidence rate was 519.74/100000 in age group>75 years.The established GM(1,1)grey prediction model predicted that the incidence of lung cancer would continue to increase from 2022 to 2025.Conclusion The incidence rate of lung cancer was high and continue to increase in Yuyao,posing challenges to its prevention and control.It is necessary to establish an integrated management system for the screening,diagnosis and treatment,management and death surveillance of lung cancer and take prevention and control measures targeting both general population and the population at high-risk,such as men,middle-aged and elderly people,to reduce the incidence rate of lung cancer and alleviate related disease burden.