中国能源行业甲烷逃逸排放估计方法及减排策略分析

Estimationmethods and emission reduction policies for methane emission in the Chinese energy sector

对现有研究中对能源行业甲烷排放开展估计的方法进行梳理,分别总结了测量技术、被测对象、数据处理方案、排放源特点刻画及概率方法的引入等环节上的进展,并概述了现在中国能源行业甲烷逃逸排放估计存在的不足;同时针对上述不足,提出开展针对性研究的方法框架。研究发现,不论是煤炭领域还是油气领域,社会能源总需求对甲烷逃逸排放量的变化都有重要的影响,减排技术的应用和推广有着广阔的减排潜力。为了进一步推进能源行业甲烷逃逸排放减排,应注重社会能源消费结构的调节,引导煤炭和油气总需求平稳下降;加强减排技术的推广和利用,充分发掘减排技术的潜力。

This article reviews the existing methods for measuring and estimating methane emissions from the energy industry in research,summarizing progress in measurement techniques,measurement targets,data processing approaches,characterization of emission sources,and the introduction of probabilistic methods.It also outlines the shortcomings in estimating methane emissions from the energy industry in China at present.The article proposes a methodological framework for targeted research to address these shortcomings.The study finds that both in the coal and oil and gas sectors,changes in total social energy demand have a significant impact on methane emissions,and the application and promotion of emission reduction technologies have vast potential for reducing emissions.In order to further promote the reduction of methane emissions from the energy sector,it is important to focus on adjusting the structure of social energy consumption,guiding a steady decline in coal and oil and gas demand,and strengthening the promotion and utilization of emission reduction technologies to fully explore their potential.