极端天气下电力短缺的网络舆情演化及调控对策研究

Research on the evolution of online public opinion and regulation countermeasures of power shortage under extreme weather

电力短缺会直接影响人们的日常生活和经济社会发展。随着互联网的发展,社交媒体对极端天气下电力短缺的讨论不断增多,如果处理不及时,这些讨论极易演化为网络舆情,可能引起社会恐慌,造成不良影响。以“郑州暴雨”和“四川限电”事件为例,基于微博文本,采用LDA主题模型和情感分析方法,分析了电力短缺网络舆情的演化过程。结果表明,电力短缺对居民生活的影响、电力短缺成因及保供恢复、电力中断次生灾害及救助需求是网络舆情的核心主题;网络舆情热度一般经历由“低”到“高”再到“低”的过程,公众情感会随着电力短缺程度、范围的扩大变得消极,并随着电力供应恢复转向积极;“极端天气-电力短缺-舆情爆发-电力保供-舆情缓解”是极端天气下电力短缺网络舆情发生发展演化的基本规律。结合以上研究结果,从舆情监测、舆情引导、舆情疏导3个方面提出了对策建议。

Power shortage will directly affect people’s daily life and economic and social development.With the development of the Internet,the discussion of power shortage in extreme weather is increasing in social media,and if not handled in a timely manner,these discussions can easily evolve into online public opinion,which may cause social panic and create adverse impacts.Taking the events of“Zhengzhou rainstorm”and“Sichuan power restriction”as examples,the evolution process of power shortage online public opinion is analyzed based on microblog texts,using LDA topic model and sentiment analysis.The results show that the impact of power shortage on residents’life,the causes of power shortage and the recovery of power supply,the secondary disasters of power interruption and the need for relief are the core themes of online public opinion;The heat of online public opinion generally goes from“low”to“high”and back to“low”,and the public sentiment becomes negative with the expansion of the degree and scope of power shortage,and turns positive with the restoration of power supply;“Extreme weather-power shortage-public opinion outbreak-power supply protection-public opinion relief”is the basic law of the development and evolution of online public opinion under extreme weather.Combined with the above findings,countermeasures are proposed in terms of public opinion monitoring,public opinion guidance,and public opinion diversion.