智能网联汽车推广的乘用车燃油消耗影响研究

Research on the Fuel Consumption Impact of Promoting Intelligent Connected Vehicles

汽车产业是国民经济的支柱产业,近年来正经历着电动化、网联化、智能化、共享化的“新四化”重要战略转型,智能网联汽车在其中扮演着重要角色。基于差异化汽车市场需求模型,估计了消费者对智能网联汽车配置的偏好,在此基础上,模拟智能网联汽车市场占有率提高所引起的乘用车燃油消耗量变化。研究发现,消费者对智能网联汽车有显著的正向偏好;智能网联汽车具有一定的节能减排潜力,但在现有技术水平下普及智能网联汽车将导致新售车辆生命周期内总燃油消耗量上升。

The automotive industry is a pillar industry of the national economy,and in recent years,it has undergone an important strategic transformation of electrification,networking,intelligence,and sharing,with intelligent connected vehicles playing an important role.This article is based on a differentiated car market demand model to study the average and heterogeneous preferences of consumers for intelligent connected vehicle configurations.With the estimated parameters,a counterfactual analysis is conducted by simulating changes in fuel consumption of passenger cars caused by increasing the popularity of intelligent connected vehicles.It finds that consumers have a significant positive preference for intelligent connected vehicles and intelligent connected vehicles have a certain potential for energy conservation reduction,but the popularization of intelligent connected vehicles at the current technological level will lead to an increase in the total fuel consumption of newly sold vehicles throughout their lifecycle.