基于碳排放权交易策略的燃煤电厂CCUS经济效益研究

Research on the economic benefits of coal fired power plant CCUS based on carbon emission trading strategy

以碳排放权交易为切入点,运用二叉树定价模型对碳排放权交易价格进行预测,运用实物期权法构建碳排放权交易下的燃煤电厂CCUS经济效益模型,针对碳排放权交易价格以及碳排放权交易策略对燃煤电厂CCUS经济效益的影响展开研究。研究结果表明:①基于目前碳排放权价格背景下,燃煤电厂开展CCUS项目所取得的经济效益是值得投资的。②购入型策略利于缩短投资回收期,留存型策略则延长了投资回收期。③留存型策略和购入型策略都可以提高燃煤电厂CCUS的经济效益,留存型更适合风险厌恶的策略,购入型则与风险偏好的策略较为契合。

This article takes carbon emissions trading as the starting point,uses a binary tree pricing model to predict the price of carbon emissions trading,and uses the real option method to construct a CCUS economic benefit model for coal-fired power plants under carbon emissions trading.The study focuses on the impact of carbon emissions trading prices and carbon emissions trading strategies on the economic benefits of CCUS for coal-fired power plants.The research results indicate that:①Based on the current carbon emission pricing background,the economic benefits achieved by coal-fired power plants carrying out CCUS projects are worth investing in.②The purchasing strategy is beneficial for shortening the investment payback period,while the retention strategy extends the investment payback period.③Both retention strategy and purchase strategy can improve the economic benefits of coal-fired power plant CCUS.The retention type is more suitable for risk aversion strategies,while the purchase type is more in line with risk preference strategies.