基于灰色关联分析法的基线负荷预测研究

Research on baseline load forecasting based on gray association analysis

基线负荷对需求响应决策十分重要,为了提高基线负荷预测精度,文章提出了一种在均值法基础上,通过采用灰色关联分析法代替典型比例因子修正法的基线负荷预测方法。通过确定负荷影响因素计算关联系数,进一步得到关联度;根据关联度大小精准确定典型日,利用典型日负荷去预测基线负荷。算例表明,所提方法能有效提高预测精度。

Baseline load is very important for the decision of demand response.In order to improve the accuracy of baseline load forecasting,a baseline load forecasting method by using gray association analysis instead of the typical scaling factor method is proposed in this paper.the correlation coefficient is calculated by determining the load influencing factors.Further the correlation degree is obtained.Then the typical days are accurately determined according to the correlation degree,and the typical daily loads are used to forecast the baseline load.The calculation example shows that the method proposed can effectively improve the prediction accuracy.