“双循环”背景下中国虚拟水流动格局特征分析——基于MRIO模型

Characteristics of virtual water flow pattern in China under the background of“dual circulation”——Based on the MRIO model

水资源是一项关系到国计民生的基础性自然资源和战略性经济资源,揭示虚拟水流动格局特征对水资源可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究通过构建多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,利用2017年中国区域间投入产出表数据,构建区域间虚拟水资源核算体系,测算2017年中国贸易隐含虚拟水流量,从省内循环、省际循环和国际循环3个循环结构揭示中国虚拟水流动格局特征,为中国水资源管理政策制定提供有效建议。结论如下:1)中国虚拟水贸易呈现内循环占主体、国际循环占比较少的分布特征,其中内循环平均占比超过90%,省内循环平均占比超过70%,即区域间循环比重较少;2)虚拟水贸易的转移格局与中国区域水资源禀赋存在分布差异,经济较发达的丰水地区水资源最终需求呈现对外的极大依赖性,相反水资源稀缺地区对省际虚拟水流入依赖度较低。结果表明,中国应强调国内循环的主导作用,通过国内大循环推动国内国际双循环;同时依托虚拟水战略,打破省际壁垒,鼓励提高区域间循环比例,推进水资源的可持续管理。

Water resource is a basic natural resource and strategic economic resource related to the national economy and people s livelihood.It is of great significance to reveal the characteristics of virtual water flow pattern for the sustainable development of water resources.Based on the data of China s inter-regional input-output table in 2017,this study constructs a multi-regional input-output(MRIO)model to calculate the virtual water flow of China s trade in 2017,reveals the characteristics of China s virtual water flow pattern from the three circulation structures of intra-provincial circulation,inter-provincial circulation and international circulation,and provide effective recommendations for water resources management policy making in China.The conclusions are as follows:1)China s virtual water trade is characterized by internal circulation accounting for the main body and international circulation accounting for less,in which internal circulation accounts for more than 90%on average,and provincial circulation accounts for more than 70%on average,inter-regional circulation accounts for less;2)The transfer pattern of virtual water trade is different from that of regional water resources endowment in China.The final demand of water resources in rich water areas with developed economy is greatly dependent on the outside world.On the contrary,the dependence of inter-provincial virtual water inflow in scarce water resources areas is low.The results show that China should emphasize the leading role of domestic circulation and promote domestic and international double circulation through domestic circulation.At the same time,relying on the virtual water strategy to break down inter-provincial barriers,encourage the improvement of inter-regional circulation ratio and promote the management of water resources.