恩施州乡村旅游地农户返贫风险评估及其影响因素研究

Poverty-returning risk of farmers and its influencingfactors in rural tourism sites: a case study of Enshi

有效预防返贫风险是后脱贫时代脱贫攻坚和乡村振兴战略有效衔接的关键.该研究将风险的概率纳入返贫风险评估体系,从发生概率和破坏程度两方面综合评估其返贫风险,系统反映返贫风险的可能性和破坏性,进而探究其影响因素.研究发现:1)农户各维度的返贫风险水平从高到低依次为个体风险、家庭风险、社会风险和自然风险,农户受家庭风险和个体风险影响较大,存在明显的内生性、个体化特征.2)依据风险的发生概率和破坏程度,返贫风险可分为“高概率-高破坏”型、“高概率-低破坏”型和“低概率-低破坏”型3种类型,其中,“高概率-高破坏”型风险包括非农就业能力和教育负担,返贫风险指数最高,对农户返贫的威胁最大.3)抚养人数和户主的文化程度等家庭特征是影响返贫风险的主要因素,乡村旅游扶贫开发模式不同导致农户的返贫风险存在显著差异.在返贫防治实践中,应因户施策,重点防治内生性返贫,同时要根据返贫风险发生概率及破坏程度的差异,制定合理的返贫风险预警机制及防治措施.

Effective prevention of poverty-returning risk is the key to the effective convergence of poverty eradication and rural revitalization strategies in the post-poverty era.This study also incorporates the probability of risk into the risk assessment system of poverty-returning risk,comprehensively assesses the poverty-returning risk was comprehensively evaluated in this study with the risk probablility incorporated into the risk assessment system and in terms of both the probability of occurrence and the degree of destruction.The possibility and destructiveness of the poverty-returning risk were systematically reflected,and then its influencing factors were explored.Results are shown as follows.1)The level of poverty-returning risk of farmers in each dimension is individual risk,family risk,social risk and natural risk in descending order,and farmers are more influenced by family risk and individual risk,with obvious endogenous and individualized characteristics.2)According to the probability of occurrence and the degree of damage,the poverty-returning risk is able to be divided into“high probability-high damage”type,“high probability-low damage”type and“low probability-low damage”type.Among them,the“high probability-high destruction”type includes non-agricultural employment ability and education burden,and has the highest risk index and the greatest threat of poverty-returning risk to farm households.3)Household characteristics such as the number of dependents and the education level of the household head are the main factors affecting the poverty-returning risk.Different rural tourism poverty alleviation development models lead to significant differences in the poverty-returning risk for farmers.In the practice of preventing poverty-returning,measures should be applied according to households,focusing on prevention and control of endogenous poverty return,and at the same time,reasonable early warning mechanisms and prevention and control measures should be formulated for poverty-returning risk according to the differences in the probability of occurrence and degree of damage of poverty-returning risk.