税收体制与中国高投资之谜:从税收分成到税制结构

Tax System and the Riddle of China’s High Investment:From Tax Sharing to Tax Structure

税制结构与税收分成作为影响地方政府税收收入的重要内容,会对地方政府产生干预经济的激励效应,进而决定地区经济发展模式。分析税制结构对地区投资的影响,研究发现:以间接税为主的税制结构通过激励地方政府引导第二产业发展的途径促进了地区投资。进一步分析发现,以间接税为主的税制结构激励地方政府选择了“重投资、轻消费”的经济发展模式,所以其抑制了消费;且实际税制结构已超过理论最优税制结构,因此其投资激励效应开始下降。因而,必须降低间接税占比,扭转目前以间接税为主的税制结构。具体来看,需完善房产税等直接税的征收体制,提升直接税占比。同时,逐步降低增值税税率,降低间接税占比。

The tax structure,like tax sharing,as an important component affecting local government tax revenue,also has an incentive effect on local governments to intervene in the economy,thereby determining the regional economic development model.This paper analyzes the impact of tax structure on regional investment,empirical analysis shows that:the tax structure dominated by indirect taxes promotes regional investment by encouraging local governments to guide the development of secondary industry.Further analysis shows that,under the incentive of tax structure dominated by indirect taxes,the local government chooses the economic development mode of"heavy investment、light consumption",so it discourages consumption.Moreover,the actual tax structure has exceeded the theoretical optimal tax structure,so its investment incentive effect begins to decline.Therefore,it is necessary to reduce the proportion of indirect taxes in order to reverse the current tax structure dominated by indirect taxes.Specifically,it is necessary to improve the collection system of direct taxes such as real estate tax in order to increase the proportion of direct taxes.At the same time,the VAT rate should be gradually reduced to reduce the proportion of indirect taxes.