智库视角下的智能决策研究——基于MIPS逻辑层次法

Research on Intelligent Decision-making from the perspective of think tanks:Based on the MIPS Method

[目的/意义]决策范式逐渐从信息化向智能化升级转型。为使智能决策更好地赋能智库问题研究,本文通过探索智能决策与智库问题研究的耦合机理、影响状况、相关政策,提出具体对策建议,以期助力我国智库高质量发展。[方法/过程]本文基于MIPS(Mechanism analysis-Impact analysis-Policy analysis-Solution)逻辑层次法,在机理分析层,引入智能决策技术和思路,从智库问题研究领域、研究方法和实践工具入手,剖析智能决策与智库研究的内在耦合机理;在影响分析层,从学术研究、学科发展和机构赋能3个角度分析智能决策对智库领域发展带来的影响;在政策分析层,梳理和对比分析国内外智能决策相关的代表性政策。[结果/结论]综合上述研究结果,本文从要重视新技术发展、关注科技伦理和知识产权问题、促进智能决策相关方向的智库人才培养和加强制度政策保障等4个层面提出思考建议。

[Purpose/significance]The decision-making paradigm is gradually transforming from informatization to intelligent upgrading.In order to enable intelligent decision-making to better empower think tank problem research,this paper explores the coupling mechanism,impact status,and related policies of intelligent decision-making and think tank problem research,and puts forward specific countermeasures and suggestions in order to promote the high-quality development of our country’s think tanks.[Method/process]This paper adopts the MIPS(Mechanism analysis-Impact analysis-Policy analysis-Solution)logical hierarchy method as its conceptual framework.At the mechanism analysis level,this paper introduces decision intelligence technology and concepts,delving into the intricate coupling mechanisms between decision intelligence and think tank research,by analyzing the research field,research methods,and practical tools of think tank problems.At the level of impact analysis,this paper scrutinizes the effects of decision intelligence on think tank development from three perspectives:academic research,discipline development,and institutional empowerment.At the level of policy analysis,this paper categorizes and compares representative policies related to decision making both domestically and internationally.[Result/conclusion]Combining the findings from the research mentioned above,suggestions are put forward from four perspectives,including emphasizing the development of new technologies,paying attention to scientific and technological ethics and intellectual property issues,promoting think tank talent cultivation in the direction of decision intelligence,and strengthening institutional policy guarantees.